The Golden Year

The Golden Year

By Eric S. Hadik

Jan. 2014 – With Gold & Silver just coming through a pivotal cycle – midway between 3–5 year cycle highs in 2011 and 3–5 year cycle lows in mid-2015 – it is an appropriate time to pull together some key analyses from the past couple years and look ahead to what could be the most decisive cycle – in 2016.

2016 is the culmination of almost every 40-Year Cycle, dating back to 1776 and flowing through to 1976 (when theJamaica Accord officially de-linked the Dollar from Gold) and is the likely time for Gold to enter a new bull market.  It may set its lowest low in 2015, but the real bull market is likely to be triggered in 2016…In  light of a myriad of diverse and/or related cycles, 2016 should be viewed as the ‘Golden Year’.  That is when so many of these cycles culminate and/or transition (often the most volatile period in a cycle).

In light of a myriad of diverse and/or related cycles, 2016 should be viewed as the ‘Golden Year’.  That is when so many cycles culminate and/or transition (often the most volatile period in a cycle).

If you look back at the recurring 40-Year Cycle, you should notice that the ‘6th’ year is when the stuff really hit the fan. Following the Boston Tea Party of 1773, it was the American Revolution in 1776 that cast the die for the ensuing 200+ years. It was the first major battle in what would eventually morph into a move toward a global monetary monopoly.

Considering that this entire war revolved around taxation and a government’s ability or inability to control the population via currency control, it can be concluded that those on the side of an Honest Currency won this opening salvo convincingly – giving them the early lead…

Honest/Hard Currency: 1     Fiat/Fungible Currency: 0

The next major battle was a more insidious one, ultimately lost in 1816 when the Second National Bank was chartered.  Since this would ultimately lead to a control of the currency and a rejection of Gold & Silver, it was a pivotal and devastating battle that resulted in almost 200 years of the ‘papers’ battling the metals and the fiats battling the hards.  1816was the loss of a major battle for Gold & Silver.

Honest/Hard Currency: 1;     Fiat/ Fungible Currency: 1

In the 1850’s, the US was again fighting the battle against Gold & Silver, reducing the weight of Silver in coins and effectively devaluing the currency.  This resulted in 1857, in the suspension of acceptance of payment in Silver. Another battle lost by Gold & Silver.

Honest/Hard Currency: 1;     Fiat/ Fungible Currency: 2

1896 was the political battle over Gold’s place in backing the US Dollar.  William Jennings Bryan built his campaign around his goal and his pledge to end the Gold Standard.  He lost.  Gold won an important battle, when it looked like the integrity of the currency was down for the count.

Honest/Hard Currency: 2;     Fiat/ Fungible Currency: 2

However, Franklin Roosevelt took up William Jennings Bryan’s cause but wisely waited until after being elected to show/play his hand.  In 1933–1934, he banned the private holding of real money (Gold & Silver) and confiscated the citizens’ real wealth.

In case there was any question as to whether the majority of Americans favored or opposed this action, the election of 1936removed any doubt.  It was the most lop-sided election – in terms of Electoral Votes – in US history.  Roosevelt took 523 Electoral Votes (98.5%) while his opponent – Alf Landon – took a whopping 8 Electoral Votes.  Now, that’s a landslide!

Honest/Hard Currency: 2;     Fiat/ Fungible Currency: 3

The banking battle against Gold had been won (in 1816).

The political/practical battle against Gold & Silver was won (in 1856).

And now, after a lone victory for Gold in 1896, the psychological/emotional battle against Gold & Silver was won in 1936.

All that was left was to encode this into US & international law… exactly 40 years later.

Along came 1973, when a replacement was found for Gold… Oil (and the three ‘D’s – debt, debt & debt).  1973–1974 saw the phased-in agreement to price oil in US Dollars – effectively backing the US Dollar with oil – since a new backer was needed before the old one could be completely annihilated.

So just in case anyone missed the intention of this Oil/Dollar agreement, along came the Jamaica Accord in 1976 – an international agreement, delinking Gold from the US Dollar.

Honest/Hard Currency: 2;     Fiat/ Fungible Currency: 4

If this was a ‘best of 7 series’, the Fiats had won.  For whatever reason, however, they decided to play the 7th and final game – even though the ultimate result had already been ascertained and assured.  I suspect that the ‘trophy’ will be awarded at the culmination of that 7th ‘game’ – or battle – in 2016!    IT

There is much more in the January 2014 ‘2016: The Golden Year’, including pertinent cycles in 2014 & 2015 – that should guide the way for Gold & Silver – and a recap of additional downside targets that should be tested by/in 2015.  It also addresses the two likely outcomes of this struggle.  In addition, there is a detailed (cycle) examination of critical Middle East Cycles that are likely to play into this analysis and a discussion on why Syria & Saudi Arabia could see dramatic changes between now and 2016.

Specific downside price targets should be reached in Gold & Silver before a MAJOR, multi-year bottom becomes most likely. A sharp Euro decline (projected for May 2014–late-2015) and upheaval in two Middle East nations (whose cycles converge in 2016) should reinforce a new bull market in Gold… but not until specific objectives have been reached and specific cycles have transpired. 2016 – The Golden Year describes much of that analysis.

An excerpt of 2016 – The Golden Year can be viewed here (complete Report available reserved for subscribers).

Futures trading – as well as trading or investing in ETFs, stocks & funds – involves substantial risk.