Silver Lining

40 Year Cycle silver lining

40-Year Bubbles & Crashes; 2013–2017 Times Next!

Silver & Stocks Synergy

In previous phases of the 40-Year Cycle, Stock Market crashes coincided with Silver crashes and the depths of deflationary pressures.  The two worst cases coincided with the two worst depressions in America’s history – 1890’s & 1930’s.            .. at near-perfect, 40-year intervals.

These coincide with the lowest points of the 40-Year Cycle Progression and set the stage for a future shift from deflation to inflation (see Eric Hadik’s Tech Tip Reference Library for complete description & details of Hadik’s Cycle Progression).

In the ensuing phase – 1974 – the DJIA bottomed, but it was during the onset of an inflationary phase.  When measuring inflation by the price of Gold & Silver (vs. the US Dollar), the early years of that new 40-Year Cycle (1973/1974 into 1980) set the tone for what was to follow – with a massive inflationary surge.  During this inflationary phase, Silver & Stocks have often rallied together – with both representing economic growth.

However, as explained in recent years, Silver (& Gold) completed their 40-Year Cycle surges in 2011. That came 40 years from when Nixon slammed shut the ‘gold window’ and forever altered the structure of the US Dollar.  In 2011, Gold & Silver completed 40-year surges and were projected to set multi-year highs – with Silver expected to crash in the ensuing years.  The 2011 highs could hold for 3–5 years… or longer.

As discussed in related analysis since 2011, Silver could ultimately make it back below 15.000/SI before this entire ‘crash’ is complete.  That would represent an approximate 70% loss in value – from its 2011 peak.

Since it did not make it to that target in 2013, another wave down is likely… but not until 3Q 2014. In the interim, one or more sharp rebounds could be seen.  And, as is often the case, a final capitulating sell-off in Silver (into 2015 or possibly 2016) could coincide with a sell-off in Stock Indices.

Déjà vu: The Silver Lining

Just as in most of the 40-Year Cycle phases – that come back into play in 2014–2016 (and beyond) – a bubble-and-crash in Silver also played a key role in the 17 & 34-Year Cycles of Financial Crises… that come back into play in 2014–2016!  (See related publications for details.)

It is the ‘thread’ that ‘lines’ each of these economic debacles.  (There are many reasons for this, not the least of which is the unique role that Silver plays as both a precious and an industrial metal – balancing Dollar-related/flight-to-quality characteristics like Gold with economic, ‘blue-collar-like’ characteristics like Copper.)

The most recent phase of both (17 AND 34-Year Cycle) was in 1980–1982 when the Hunt Brothers attempted to corner the Silver market – during a parabolic peak in inflation – and ultimately ushered in a crash in Silver (after that cornering attempt failed… or was rebuffed, however you view it).

2014–2016 is 34 years from that Silver crash and ushers in another unique time for Silver… and Stocks.

The 17-Year Cycle has timed recurring financial crises that coincided with or ushered in these dramatic moves in Silver and/or Stocks.  1997–1998 saw a domino-effect of financial crises, beginning with the Asian Crisis and culminating with the Russian Crisis.  [Refer to related publications, explaining why both China AND Russia are expected to play key roles in the market moves of 2014–2017!]

2014–2015 is the next phase.

In 1980/1981, there was the Iranian Embassy Hostage Crisis – that had begun in late-1979 – and the Soviet invasion & occupation of Afghanistan (that had also begun at the very end of 1979).  The latter led to the grain embargo against the Soviets – a decision that would ultimately trigger a deflationary crash in the US.

34 years later is 2014/2015.

17 years before the 1980 crises, there were global-altering crises in 1962/1963 – the Cuban Missile Crisis followed by the assassination of JFK and then the assassination of Ngo Dinh Diem (S. Viet Nam).  Those two assassinations paved the way for the escalation of American involvement in Viet Nam. The Gulf of Tonkin incident – in 1964 – was the proverbial ‘last straw’.

51 years later is 2013–2015.

            17 years before these 1962/1963 events was the culmination of World War II – in 1945/1946. 

That period included the use of two atom bombs – a monumental ‘game-changer’ for the ensuing 60-70 years – and critical events like the division of Germany (that led to the Berlin Blockade that ushered in the Cold War that led to Viet Nam, Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, etc.).  The events in Viet Nam – in 1945 & 1946 – ushered in the First Indochina War and are undeniably what led to the Vietnam War.

17 years prior was 1929 (Black Friday, start of Great Depression, etc.).

85 years later (17 x 5) is 2014!

17 years prior was 1912 (Initial Balkan War, which really was start of World War I).

The 17-Year Cycle continues to flow back – including the beginning of the end for the Ottoman Empire – the Russo-Turkish War in 1877–1878 – and the American Civil War in 1861.

Add all these events together – or rather string them all together with the 17-Year & 34-Year Cycle ‘thread’ – and you have a momentous periodbeginning in 2014.  [Crash Cycles do not begin until 2015/2016, so 2014 should only provide initial validation.]

From a market perspective, Silver was projected to crash in 2011–2013 (it lost over 60% of its value) and then bottom (at least initially) in late-2013. That is showing signs of reaching fruition, even as stocks are moving higher – focusing on the culmination/perpetuation of numerous, yearly CycleProgressions (3-year, 6-year, 7-year & 12-year) in 4Q 2014… when a major top is expected.

So, a rebound in Silver – through a chunk of 2014 – could coincide with a final, inflation-boosted rally in Stock Indices… before 2015–2017 ‘tolls the bell’ for this 40-Year Cycle.

Silver has some intriguing cycles in 2014 – most notable in 3Q 2014!  Once they take hold, they could have the opposite effect – initiating another deflationary phase in Silver that ultimately leads to a deflationary fall in Stock Indices – most likely in 2015.

3Q & 4Q 2014 is when much of this is most likely to begin and/or unfold… leading into Stock Index Crash Cycles in 2015 and some unique, multi-year cycle lows in Silver in 2015… And that should pave the way for 2016 – The Golden Year!

There is much more on all of this analysis, discussed in other publications.  4Q 2014–4Q 2015 represents the greatest synergy of overlapping cycles – in Silver & Stock Indices – when the latest 40-Year Cycle should enter a crescendo… and lead into 2016/2017.

For related analysis & cycles that preceded this – and pinpointed the 2011 peak in Gold & Silver (PRECISELY 40 years from the Nixon Gold Shockin August 1971) – refer to the following publications:

40-Year Cycle: 2011 Gold Peak

40-Year Cycle:  2011 Gold Peak II

40-Year Cycle:  2011 Gold Peak III