32-33 Week Cycle; Sept. & April Highs
10/14/14 40-Year Cycle: Stock-flation 1974–2014: “The month of October has been a pivotal month in Stock Indices for many decades.
That includes Black Friday in October 1929, Black Monday in October 1987, the mini-crash that followed in October 1989, the post-Kuwaiti invasion low of October 1990 (that ushered in the 1990’s bull market and the notorious Tech Bubble), the ensuing low of October 2002 – that ushered in the next bull market and the real estate/sub-prime bubble of the 2000’s – and even the peak that ended that bubble, in October 2007.
The funny thing is that October has represented the month of extremes. It has timed Major tops & crashes and it has pinpointed Major lows and opportune buying opportunities. So, what about October 2014? What will it hold?
In order to begin to address that question, it actually takes a significant gathering of analysis – much of it already published – to construct a possible scenario for October 2014… and beyond…
As this latest bull market has unfolded – from 2008/2009 and more so from Aug./Oct. 2011 – there have been corroborating cycles that helped hone this analysis. One of those has been the 15–16 month cycle that has governed the Indices since the March 2009 low. It has been discussed for several years and subsequently timed lows in June/July 2010 & Oct. 2011. After that, it arrived early – in Nov. 2012.
In retrospect (20/20 hindsight), that Nov. 2012 low was linked to the Aug. 2011 low in the Nasdaq 100 – which had arrived earlier than the Oct. 2011 lows in the DJIA & S+P 500 – creating two competing cycle lows. That 15-month low-low cycle (Aug. 2011–Nov. 2012) projected a subsequent low in Feb. 2014 – that arrived on schedule. But, there was more…
That Feb. 2014 cycle low had been corroborated by its half-cycle – an approximate 7.5 month cycle that helped pinpoint the late-June 2013 bottom (that was also discussed previously). And, a 7.5 Month Cycle from the early-Feb. 2014 low – and a 15-Month Cycle from the late-June 2013 low – reached fruition in late-September 2014… 1–2 weeks before long-term, 4Q 2014 cycles converged.
32–33 Week Cycle
The 32–33 Week Cycle is a multiple of the 11-Week Cycle (discussed throughout 2011, helping to pinpoint the July 2011 peak and Oct. 3–7, 2011 bottom) – a cycle that is also at the root of a 22–23 Week Cycle & 44–45 Week Cycle, discussed since 1999–2000. In 2012, it was forecast to pinpoint a low in late-May, which arrived right on schedule (see 11-Week Cycle series at www.insiidetrack.com for preceding articles).
At the same time, an overlapping 32–33 week (~7.5 month) Cycle Progression formed – connecting the late-March/early-April 2012 high with the Nov. 2012 low… and then the late-June/early-July 2013 low. That was forecast to lead to a February 2014 low – which took hold as anticipated.
The ensuing phase of both the 32–33 Week AND 66-Week (7.5 & 15-month) Cycles came into play in Sept. 2014 – on Sept. 15–26, 2014… the exact time the Nasdaq 100 just set a spike high…April 2015 is the next phase!
…The chart above (page 5) is the current action of the Nasdaq 100 and the 32–33 Week Cycle that culminated on Sept. 15–26, 2014. Actually, it has been a very precise, 32-Week Cycle since Nov. 2012. The current NQ-100 peak of Sept. 19, 2014 completed a precise, 32-week low-low-low-(high) Cycle Progression and closely followed the NYSE peak of early-Sept.
At the time, the NYSE & NQ-100 triggered daily trend pattern sell signals (on Sept. 19th/22nd – see corresponding Weekly Re-Lays) and projected a sharp drop into Oct. 6–10, 2014.
Other indicators leave open the potential for that decline to stretch into Oct. 13–17, 2014 (see Sept. 25, 2014 Weekly Re-Lay for a breakdown of multiple signals and objectives corroborating this analysis). So, what does that mean for October?
October Blues
For starters, the action of Sept. 3rd/4th–Sept. 19th/22nd built expectations for a sharp drop in the first part of October…Once these Indices – and the DJIA & S+P 500 – confirmed that (at least) an intermediate peakhad taken hold in September, it clarified expectations for cycles in the first half of October …which could only be a low. That would actually be a better affirmation of future cycles in April 2015.
As recounted on page 7, geometric cycles (90, 180, 360 degrees or days) converge on Oct. 13–17th and provide the perfect opportunity for a ‘precursor cycle low’.
In other words, by fulfilling the potential for an intermediate low – and the culmination of a multi-week period of selling – Oct. 13–17th could provide an archetype of what to expect in mid-April 2015, 180 degrees in the future. So, an intermediate bottom around mid-October could have very revealing current AND future ramifications.
So, could the market events of October 2014 – and the ensuing months – shed some light on what to expect in April 2015? Absolutely. And that will be the topic of an ongoing discussion.”
32–33 Week & 66-Week Cycle Corroborate 40-Year Stock-flation Cycle & 17-Year Cycle of Financial Crashes; Watch late-April–late-Sept. 2015!