32–33 Week Stock Cycle Returns
08/03/16 Weekly Re-Lay Alert – Dow Duet… & the 32–33 Week Cycle:
“Stock Indices have given the first signs of topping after fulfilling late-June cycle lows and then surging to upside projected targets at 18,600–18,700/DJIA, ~2175.5/ESU & ~4700/NQU. The S+P was the last to actually spike above its corresponding level, doing so on Monday…
As explained in early-July, the ideal scenario (from the perspective of a developing bear market) was for the DJTA to rally into mid-July – the next phase of a ~90-degree Cycle Progression – and peak without turning the weekly trend up.
That is exactly what transpired, with the Transports twice neutralizing their weekly downtrend – the textbook sequence for a secondary peak – and immediately turning back down. That Index is now poised for a corroborating signal…
The DJTA’s weekly 21 MARC will now surge in the coming weeks – making a reversal lower in the corresponding weekly 21 MAC more likely (since the MARC is the ‘replacement’ number, being removed from the calculation of the underlying MAC).
Next week, the weekly 21 High MARC spikes up to 8,091/DJTA. So, as long as the intra-week high (next week) does not exceed 8,091/DJTA, the corresponding weekly 21 High MAC will turn down.
If, as has been discussed repeatedly, the DJTA confirms a peak in July, that would add another level of validation to the uncanny parallels to 1999–2001 – the same analogy that has projected 15–18 months of sideways action in the DJIA, before a sustained decline becomes more likely (in late-2016).
With regard to the Transports, in Jan. 2001, the DJTA set its second (lower) peak 20 months after its primary peak (May 1999). A high in July ’16 would mimic that pattern now, setting a secondary peak 20 months after its Nov. 2014 primary peak.
And, as elaborated in recent weeks, August 1–12th is the next phase of the perpetually recurring 32–33 Week Cycle – that often times intermediate peaks and/or ushers in a ‘Danger Period’ in the 1–2 months that follow. (The August 2016 INSIIDETrack elaborated on that cycle & includes a related diagram – illustrating what this means for the next 32–33 week period – when an inversion is more likely.)… [See complete 8/03/16 Weekly Re-Lay Alert for expectations following the completion of this latest 32–33 Week AND 66-Week Cycle – in mid-August… when cycles begin to turn back down.]