40-Year Cycle of War, Peace & Geopolitics…

40-Year Cycle of War, Peace & Geopolitics…
Outlook 2015–2017
40-Year Cycle in Europe

04-29-15 – The month of April 2015 provided some noteworthy events – that promise to have more of a future impact than a current one.  A few of those events surrounded Greece’s financial woes… and Greece’s resulting actions.  Before examining those events, it is a good time to revisit an expected sequence of geopolitical events, described over the past two decades…

Before addressing this, I should clarify this is not an attempt to engage in a religious or theological discussion (even though it involves a Biblical quote).  It is also not a discussion on prophetic topics.

Instead, it is a reaffirmation of cyclical analysis.

And, in many ways, it is a reaffirmation of fractal analysis.

[In simple terms, fractals can be compared to a large bunch of broccoli in which the smallest portions possess the same pattern as the larger, overriding portion… and vice-versa.  In the markets & geopolitics, sometimes small events are repeated on a higher degree… and vice-versa.]

Nebuchadnezzar’s Dream

This particular analysis is very simple – but equally profound.  It involves my expectations for a mini-repeat (microcosm) of the past few millennia – that resurrects a sequence of global powers discussed in the Old Testament book of Daniel… that subsequently unfolded over the ensuing centuries.

In Daniel, Chapter 2, King Nebuchadnezzar has a dream that Daniel interprets as a presaging of world kingdoms to follow.  They begin with Babylon (which was in power at that time), then move on to Medo-Persia and then to Greece and finally to Rome.  A check of any history book can confirm this historical sequence.

M & M’s

On multiple levels, I have been looking for a similar sequence to unfold – on a much quicker & smaller basis – dealing with global (Western) focus & struggles, a series of mini-power struggles.  This involves the nations surrounding the Mediterranean, including and extending into the Middle East…

In modern-day terms, that would mean the Western World (the modern-day power or pseudo-’empire’) would be consumed with Iraq, then Iran, then Greece, then Italy.     Hmmmm.

The 1990’s ushered in the focus on Iraq (Persian Gulf War) – continuing into the 2000’s.

The 2000’s – particularly after Ahmadinejad’s election in 2005 – shifted the focus to Iran (even as the focus on Iraq was winding down).

The 2010’s – particularly after Ahmadinejad’s demise in 2013 – are seeing a slow shift of focus to Greece.  (Greece came to the economic forefront in 2010 as Iran remained in focus but is in the midst of negotiations to diminish their influence.)

The 2020’s are likely to see the focus shift to Italy… or Rome.  But, that’s a different discussion.

Of course, there is always a lead-in period (before the decade of primary focus) and a phase-out period (as the next focus comes into view).  The 1980’s – and the Iran/Iraq War that consumed most of that decade – were an even bigger ’lead-in’ to this unique 40-Year Cycle that culminates in the 2020’s.

Military or Money?

One could argue that Iraq & Iran were primarily a military focus – in one form or another – while Greece is largely a financial focus.  I agree.  But, the two are so closely intertwined that it is often difficult to separate the military from the money.  And, if things keep progressing as they did inApril, the two could eventually merge – in the case of Greece.

April 2015 witnessed a ‘first shot’ being fired, at European Unity… from Greece.

As Prime Minister Tsipras neared desperation, he reached out to Vladimir Putin while chastising the EU for their stand on the Ukraine Crisis – antagonizing, rather than assuaging his ‘bankers’.  Putin assured the world the meeting meant nothing, that he would not offer financial aid (similar to Cyprus) and basically let everyone know it was just a couple of acquaintances getting together for a ‘brew-ski’.

Of course, less than a week later, the CEO of Gazprom ended up in Greece, laying out a roadmap for a major oil pipeline project between the two countries.  Now, let’s see…

The two nations with their Orthodox Church history tieing them together and their governing political parties sympathetic to one another are laying the groundwork for a Major financial, political and oil-related connection that could reverberate throughout Europe & the Middle East… and throughout the remainder of this decade and the next.

            Will the world ultimately look back on April 2015 and pinpoint it as a watershed event? 

40-Year Cycle Review

In 1976, Constantinos Karamanlis declared: “Greece belongs to the West!”

Could a 40-Year Cycle – and a major economic collapse (Greece) and a military confrontation (Russia & Ukraine) change that???

            In 2016, will Greece begin to shift her allegience to Moscow?  Or at least be beholden to Russia??  Could Grexit precede and/or precipitate that?

It would not surprise me at all – to look back in a few years and pinpoint April 2015 as the time when a ground-shifting change occurred in Eastern Europe… and ultimately spread throughout Europe.

And that brings us full-circle (cycle) back to two other foci, one more urgent than the other…

1 – ‘Bears Beget Bears’.  The coincidence of Russian Bear and Stock Market Bear emerging has been an ongoing pattern for the past ~40 years.  Could Greece’s shift – and Russia’s life-line – trigger another round of this ‘B.B.B.’ pattern?

2 – Rome on deck.  I say ‘on deck’ in the baseball sense of a batter being ‘on deck’ (the next batter in line).  As Greece’s problems have accelerated, the conversation frequently turns to Spain & Italy as the likely ‘next dominoes’ if/when Greece falls.

Could a similar fate soon await Italy?  Perhaps the sequence even begins to accelerate and Italy becomes the focus before the 2020’s.  If one were to pinpoint the year when major events triggered this ‘ancient empire’/M & M focus, it would have to be 1978/1979 – when the fateful sequence of Camp David Accord & Islamic Revolution (as well as rise of Saddam Hussein and Soviet invasion of Afghanistan) turned the tide.

2018/2019 is one 40-Year Cycle from 1978/1979 and has been – and still is – expected to time a MAJOR shift in, through & surrounding the Middle East… including the onset of a new Union (that could include the Middle East and certain Mediterranean nations in Africa & Europe).

40-Year/80-Year Cycle

It is hard to ignore the link between current events and those of 40 or 80 years ago.  As described last month, 1935 was the year when Germany began its ascent to one of the most powerful nations on earth… for a time.

At the same time, Greece experienced a dramatic shift (failed coup, coup, republic abolished, monarch reinstated) in 1935… leading to a dictatorship in 1936.  Turmoil followed until 1975 – when a new constitution was enacted.

80 years later… and 40 years later… in 2015, Greece is experiencing another dramatic shift with Germany acting as lead antagonist.  Could this lead to another dramatic shift in 2016 – 80 years after a similar shift in 1936? 

Meanwhile, the ’Last Man Standing’ (DAX) has shown the first signs of vulnerability…

‘Last Man Standing’ Update

As discussed in recent months, the German DAX Index has been the strongest Index – particularly since Oct. 2014.  As such, it was the one being monitored closely for signs of weakness.

(When looking for a major bottom, the weakest Index must turn up before confirming a bottom; similarly, the strongest must turn down to confirm a top.)

During the pivotal week of April 13–17th, the DAX suffered its first sizeable correction of 2015 – falling 5% in a week and turning its intra-month trend down.  That set the stage for further downside – leading into month-end.

It is now fulfilling that objective – with a subsequent 5+% drop – and could continue dropping into month-end.  The DAX has its next decisive level around 10,700 – the high of the 2015 year-opening range – a key level of resistance turned into support.

So, the strongest Index triggered a potentially revealing signal on April 17th… and is now looking to validate that signal.  May 2015 needs to further confirm it if a multi-month peak is forming.”      IT

— Europe Fulfilling Multi-Decade & Multi-Century Cycles.
April/May 2015 = Watershed Events?  Early-2016 in Focus.
— Europe/Middle East Focus Remains on 2016–2019!