Bitcoin Validates June 5–11th Cycle High…
06/14/17 Weekly Re-Lay Alert – “The Dollar’s ‘Crypto-nite’? Or Vice-Versa??”:
“The (inverse) correlation between the Dollar & cryptocurrency is becoming more & more intriguing as both/all of them pass through some decisive intermediate cycles… and attack multi-month targets. From a cyclic basis, Bitcoin was arguing for an intra-month & intermediate peak (that could turn into a larger-degree peak) on June 5–11th.
As explained previously:
“Bitcoin set intra-month highs on Jan. 5–11th, Feb. 5–11th, March 5–11th, April 5–11th & May 5–11th, creating a noteworthy, ~30-degree high-high Cycle Progression that has just recurred on June 5–11th.
The potential for a high on June 5–11th was corroborated when Bitcoin spiked up to – and held – its weekly LHR (intra-week extreme upside target) on May 21–27th. That signal projected a culminating spike high in the ensuing weeks, by mid-June.”
On a price basis, Bitcoin was expected to peak near 3,000, based on multiple indicators. To reiterate:
“With monthly resistance for June ranging from ~2940–3105 and this week’s Intra-week PLLR just being attacked (~2880), Bitcoin is at a decisive juncture based on intermediate price & time targets.”
Meanwhile, Ethereum was targeting a logarithmic & parabolic upside objective at ~400.00. Since the beginning of the year, Ethereum has seen each of its corrections immediately after attaining the next doubling of its previous peak. In March ’17, it surged to ~50.00 and then retraced.
It finally broke through that level in late-April and quickly surged to ~100.00 (double 50.00) and pulled back. A break above 100.00, after mid-May, spurred an immediate surge to ~200.00 (double the previous peak of ~100.00) and then a pullback.
And, when 200.00 was exceeded, it was off to the races – with ~400.00 as the next objective. Ethereum just attacked that target – on June 11/12th – validating cycles in Bitcoin (and the Dollar).
These digital currencies have fulfilled intermediate upside objectives and shown subtle signs of topping, right in line with cycles, weekly LHR time targets & wave timing objectives.
At the same time, the Dollar is showing signs of a multi-month bottom in the making. If the Dollar shows signs of recovery, it would not surprise me to see some of the crypto-bubble begin to deflate.
As explained in the June 7, 2017 Alert, Bitcoin has seen each of its major surges take hold in near precise lockstep with critical support breakdowns in the Dollar Index. When the Dollar Index accelerated to the downside – beginning on May 15th – Bitcoin experienced its sharpest advance, a ~5-day surge from ~1650 to ~2640… finally peaking (initially) when the Dollar Index began to bounce.
The time is ripe for a new Dollar bounce… and it could be a much larger & longer one than any seen yet in 2017. And what will that do to Bitcoin, Ethereum & the other dozens & dozens of cryptocurrencies?
At least on a smaller scale, the sudden emergence & acceptance of all of these ‘currencies’ is looking similar to an ancient time (1999/2000) when ‘everyone and their mother’ was starting a new web-related business & issuing stock as quickly as they could.
Millionaires were made in weeks… sometimes days. ‘Don’t worry about earnings… or even a product’, was the thinking. ‘This ‘investment’ only needs future hopes & dreams. The only important thing right now is that someone else is willing to pay a higher price than you. Just get on board and enjoy the ride. The internet is the wave of the future.’
And that is where two important lessons can be gleaned…
#1 – The internet WAS/IS the wave of the future. That conclusion was not wrong. And, it appears that digital currency is also the wave of the future.
#2 – Just because an industry has great future potential does NOT mean it is justified in going parabolic right away. That’s why they call it ‘future’ and ‘potential’.
The Nasdaq had to lose over 80% of its value – in a little over two years – and then spend the next 14+ years recovering from that damage… before it could even make it back to where it was in March 2000.
Could this parabolic move in another computer-based, money-making, not-yet-realized, wave of the future be poised for some sort of shake-up – in perfect alignment with the 17-Year Cycle – before it ultimately reaches its destiny? Or, is it different this time??
In addition to the Dollar-related application of this analysis, there is also an unmistakable application toward Gold & Silver. Since this parabolic move in cryptocurrency took hold, precious metals have struggled to hold any serious gains despite many quick, sharp reactionary rallies.
If there were any signs of the froth coming off Bitcoin, et al, would that help Gold & Silver hold on to gains in the future?
I am NOT drawing a direct correlation (nor advocating trading one) – inverse or otherwise – between any of these ‘currencies’. However, there is a psychological aspect that cannot be ignored. And that psychology is what drives the markets. For now, watch…”
Dollar poised for rebound from June 14th spike low. Bitcoin & Ethereum fulfill upside price targets & cycles and prepare for sharp correction, following June 11th cycle peak. July/August 2017 holds intriguing cycle application to Bitcoin.
See Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track for additional analysis.