Date of Aggression Stock Peak Likely
04/20/16 Weekly Re-Lay Alert:
“At the same time, the Shanghai Composite has entered a period of time (middle half of April) when weekly & monthly cycles converge and have been anticipating a peak. It set its high on April 14th and has drifted about 3.5% lower since then. It would have to drop below 2680 to signal any meaningful decline but its latest 3-month/~90-degree rebound has been far less convincing than its predecessor in 4Q 2015.
Meanwhile, the Hang Seng has rebounded less than a third of what it dropped from late-April 2015 into early-Feb. 2016. It is nearing its year-opening high – a critical level of intra-year resistance – as it approaches the 1-year anniversary (360-degree cycle) of its 2015 peak. As for U.S. equity markets…
Stock Indices remain positive but are showing signs of mild divergence near their highs. The Transports… have failed to close above their March 20 high, setting a double top exactly 90 degrees from the Jan. 20th low (and 30 degrees from the March 20th high).
Meanwhile, investors are taking a nibble out of the FANG stocks while Apple & other techs are showing signs of reversing…early warning signs of a developing top…this week is a pivotal one – arriving ~90 degrees from the Jan. 20th spike lows in so many Indices.
It is also the next phase of the DJIA’s 24-week high (Dec. ’14)–high (May ’15)–high (Nov. ’15)–high (April 18–22, 2016)Cycle Progression… an over-arching cycle of almost 180 degrees.
The DJTA has a 33–36 week/~8-month high (July ’13)–high (April ’14)–high (Nov. ’14)–high (Aug. ’15) Cycle Progressionthat just peaked… as the S+P is providing a textbook example of wave (duration) equality, setting new highs during its 10 week – matching the duration of its previous 10-week rally (from late-August into early-Nov. 2015).
All of those timing indicators converge on April 18–22nd …Daily cycles are also focused on the current period, specifically April 20–22nd, for a potential peak. Since its Feb. 11th low, the Russell 2000 has traced out a 13–15 day low-low-low-low-low Cycle Progression that should now invert and create a high on April 20th or 21st.
Overlapping that low-low cycle, the Russell also has a ~16 trading day high-high-high-low-low-high-high Cycle Sequencethat next comes into play on April 21st or 22nd. So, the ideal scenario would be to see a spike high now… and some initial selling into the weekly close.” [See complete April 20, 2016 Weekly Re-Lay Alert for additional details on a developing top and projections for the next ‘Danger Period’.]
Stock Indices fulfilling analysis for important top around April 19th – the Date of Aggression.