Dollar Could Drop into July 14th
07/01/17 Weekly Re-Lay:
“The Dollar Index failed to follow-through higher this week after turning its intermediate trend neutral. That allowed this decline to extend & exceed the duration of the two previous declines. This also has stretched the Dollar’s decline to where a low in the coming week would complete a 180-degree/6-month decline from its early-Jan. peak. That is corroborated by weekly cycles.
Since the early-Nov. spike low, the Dollar Index has adhered to a ~2-month/8–9 week cycle resulting in a low-high-high-high Cycle Progression that comes back into play on July 3–14th, when an intermediate low is more likely. (The next phase of that cycle would coincide with the early-Sept. 35–36 week cycle when a rebound peak is likely.)
Corroborating those cycles, the Dollar dropped right to its weekly HLS (95.44/DXU) – the extreme downside target for this week. That usually leads to an intermediate low in the ensuing week(s). From a wave perspective, the Dollar has matched the magnitude (~8.50 points) of its two previous declines, setting the stage for a low.
The Euro surged to new highs, negating the potential for an early week reversal back down. That provided the Euro the opportunity to reverse its monthly trend up on June 30th, which it did, validating the Dollar’s monthly trend reversal down in May. That sets the stage for an initial peak and 1–3 month pullback.
The Yen continued lower on the heels of its June 16th outside-week/2 Close Reversal sell signal. It reinforced that by completing a monthly 2 Close Reversal Combo lower. An initial low could be seen on July 10–14th – the next phase of a 9-week high-low-low-low-(low?) Cycle Progression.”
Dollar poised to extend drop into July 14th as Euro could rally into then. Yen remains on track for correction (lower) into July 10–14th… before next rally. July 10th is ideal date for Yen low, linked to previous lows on March 10th & May 10th (60-degree/2-month low-low-low Cycle Progression).
Bitcoin & Ethereum expected to resume declines now that rebound objectives have been met. Overall drop into late-July still expected – with primary downside targets of ~1,900/Bitcoin & ~150/Ethereum.
July 2017 holds important cycle application to Bitcoin (Mt Gox, etc.)… and could spell additional trouble for cryptocurrency… while also identifying optimum time for next (future) buying opportunity.
See Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track for additional analysis and/or trading strategies.