Dollar Remains Bullish
08/05/13 INSIIDE Track: “The Dollar Index rallied into early-July, fulfilling weekly & monthly cycles, the weekly trend pattern and weekly LHR… and then turned back down…
On a 6-12 month basis, focus is on July–Sept. 2014, the next phase of a nearly-ubiquitous 3+-year cycle in the Dollar Index. Since the 1970’s, one of the most consistent cycles in the Dollar Index – for the past 35 years – has been a 38–40 Month Cycle.
During that 4 decades, this cycle would sometimes contract – to 34-35 months – and sometimes expand, to 41-42 months (making it – from a very general perspective – a 3–3.5 year cycle). Each time, however, it would quickly return to 38-40 months.
The latest occurrence of this cycle was in early-2013, when it forecast a low for Jan./Feb. 2013 – 38-39 months from the November 2009 low.
That was reinforced by a recurring half-cycle – an 18-20 month cycle that had/has been governing Dollar action in the past 5-7 years.
Since the March 2008 major bottom, Dollar Index lows have occurred at intervals of 20 months (Nov. 2009), 18 months (May 2011) and 20 months (lowest monthly close in Jan. 2013).
The next phase comes back into play in July–Oct. 2014 – aligning with a 38-40 month move from the May 2011 secondary low.
If an intervening (3-5 month) high or low is seen in October or November 2013 – the half-cycle of this half-cycle – it would increase the focus on 3Q 2014, when a 9-10 month, 18-20 month & 38-40 month cycle would converge.”