Feb. 2016 Cycle Lows Fulfilled

Feb. 2016 Cycle Lows Fulfilled.
Asian Indices Reach Key Levels.
US Indices Hold 2016 Yearly Support.

02/29/16 INSIIDE Track:   

02/29/16 – Stock Indices fulfilled the early-2016 outlook – and the latest phase of the overall 2015/2016 Roadmap – by undergoing a sharp decline from mid-Dec. ‘15 (when the greatest synergy of cycles turned negative) into late-Jan./early-Feb. 2016… when cycles initially bottomed.

Price action corroborated that with most of the Indices retesting & spiking below their August lows while testing & holding their monthly HLS levels AND attacking their 2016 yearly support (on Jan. 20th).

The Jan. 2016 low reinforced a decisive monthly Cycle Progression – that projects a subsequent monthly low for June 2016.  That is when a 10-month low-low-(low) Cycle Progression (Oct. ’14–Aug. ’15–Jun. ’16) AND now a corroborating (half-cycle) 5-month high-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression (Mar. ’15–Aug. ’15–Jan. ’16Jun. ’16) recur…

Once again (as seen repeatedly the past 14 months), the January lows set the stage for a series of divergent lows to quickly follow, with many Indices spiking to slight new lows in Feb. – when weekly cycles projected a bottom.  That repeats the patterns seen in Nov./Dec. ’14 (highs), Jan./Feb. ’15 (lows), Apr./May ’15 (highs), Aug./Sept. ’15 (lows) & Nov./Dec. ’15 (highs). 

That final decline allowed Indices like the S+P to ALSO fulfill a precise wave relationship – completing a 2nd consecutive decline of 14 weeks each (May 18Aug. 24 & Nov. 2–6th to Feb. 8–12th).  Several other Indices corroborated, with the majority spiking down to weekly extremes & monthly support in February – the next degree lower of what was seen in January – a sequential bottoming formation in both time AND price.  Daily extremes were also reached, at the lows – completing this bottoming pattern.

In doing so, the Indices showed that the combined Jan./Feb. lows represent a higher-degree bottom than those seen in recent months…Looking out over the remainder of 2016, another decline is expected in 2Q 2016 – resulting in an important low in June 2016 (with a precursor low likely in late-April/early-May)… and then into Oct. 2016

Global Indices

China’s Shanghai Composite fulfilled 1–3 month expectations – from Nov. & mid-Dec. – for an overall drop into February…The Shanghai Composite has lost almost 50% from its June ‘15 peak… and is very likely to spur repercussions around the globe in the months & years to come.  One of the nations most vulnerable to a Chinese slowdown is Russia – who was planning on diverse trade agreements, most notably two major pipelines to move Russian Natural Gas to China, to offset some of the negative effects of a plummeting Ruble & plummeting oil market (see page 4)…

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index dropped sharply in Jan. & spiked to a final (intermediate) low in Feb., fulfilling its late-Oct. sell signal.  In doing so, it attacked its 1–2 year HHL downside objective at 18,258

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index is beginning to confirm a Major peak, using an additional decline into February to finally close below its monthly trend reversal point (16,901) and turn the monthly trend down…

The Nikkei made it down to its 2016 HLS (15,334) – an extreme intra-year downside target – but remains in a technically weak position.  As a result of February’s action, this is likely to extend the overall correction into 2Q 2016 and perpetuate a 2-year high (2Q ‘08)–high (2Q ‘10)–low (2Q ‘12)–low (2Q ‘14)–low (2Q 2016Cycle Progression.  ~14,000 is 1–2 year support…

The German DAX Index still needs a monthly close below 9338 to reverse its monthly trend down.  Like so many Indices, it extended its drop into February – the target for the first important (multi-month?) low in 2016

The FTSE still needs a monthly close below 5768 to turn its monthly trend down…The FTSE gave a convincing intra-month reversal higher – after spiking to new lows – in February, reinforcing the potential for additional upside, on balance.  The topic of Brexit has the potential to skew the FTSE away from the path of other Indices, at least when pertinent news emerges.”

U.S. Stock Indices spiked down to monthly & intra-year extreme support & downside targets while reaching the projected low (SPS) for the entire year of 2016.  At the same time, they signaled that these lows were a bottom of higher degree than those in 2015.  Meanwhile, Asian Indices fulfilled their projected sell-offs into Feb. 2016 – when multi-month & multi-year cycles bottom (while projecting future focus to Feb. 2017Feb. 2018).  Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index attacked – and held – decisive downside objectives & multi-year support points.

This action is increasing the probability for continued volatility and two-sided action – in US Indices – throughout 2016… in a parallel to what was seen in the DJIA in 2000–2001.