Gold & 40-Year Cycle of War
04/15/15 Weekly Re-Lay Alert: “The markets are entering an annual period of time when acts of aggression – economic, military, geopolitical, etc. – have historically occurred, with seemingly greater consistency than at any other comparable period during the year.
As recently reiterated, the period of April 15–22nd comprises the greatest synergy of these ‘events’ with April 19th (& 20th) pinpointing the individual date with the greatest synergy.
In most cases, this does NOT pinpoint an exact high or low in the markets. Instead, it usually accelerates new or existing trends that have already been in force. In 2015, however, there are a great deal of intermediate cycles converging in close proximity to that time frame.
While these two areas of analysis should be examined separately – and each attributed its own significance or lack thereof – it is their synergy in 2015 that warrants some heightened attention.
And that is amplified by the recurrence of a 40-Year Cycle of War & Peace in 2015… with strong links to the month of April. Here again, this should be assessed individually and then utilized to look for areas of convergence or synergy…
Gold & Silver – on a 1-2 year, 6-12 month & 3–6 month basis – remain on track for an overall decline into late-June/early-July 2015, when a myriad of longer-term cycles (weekly, monthly, yearly & multi-year) portend an important bottom. There is a good chance that mid-2015 – if price action corroborates – could time a multi-year low.
In the interim, Gold & Silver were expected to rebound from their mid-March lows and set a secondary high on April 13–24th. Gold has corroborated that outlook – setting an intervening low at the midpoint of March 31st – while Silver has been diverging and exhibiting developing weakness.
With respect to Gold, it just set another low on April 14th – precisely at weekly support, its ascending weekly 21 Low MAC and its daily HLS – while retesting but remaining above its April 1st low. Not only did this reinforce intra-month resilience, it also perpetuated a 14-day low-low-low Cycle Progression that next comes into play on April 28th.
That recent sequence is at the tail-end of a larger, 12–14-day low-high-high-high-high-low-low-low Cycle Progression – dating back to before the January 22nd peak.
In the textbook Cycle Progression sequence, April 28th should time another low. However, I will be watching for any signs that the sequence is inverting early and projecting a high for April 28th.
Ideally, Gold would peak around April 21st or 22nd, ~90 degrees from the Jan. 22nd peak and ~180 degrees from the Oct. 21st peak… and then drop into April 28th.
From a price perspective, Gold could still rally to ~1235.0/GCM before a secondary (intra-year) peak is set. If it is going to reach that level, the ‘ideal’ scenario would be to see it peak around 1214.0/GCM this week (creating synergy of weekly LHRs AND the coming week’s 21 High AMAC at ~1235.0/GCM for next week) and then surge to 1235.0/GCM next week.”
Gold & Silver Poised for Lows in mid-April & late-April… before next rally. Price action projects surge to ~1235.0/GCM before final drop into mid-year.