Gold & Silver Confirm July 10th Cycle Low
07/15/17 Weekly Re-Lay:
“Gold & Silver precisely fulfilled their latest expectation, setting a spike low on July 10th, the latest phase of a ~2-month/60-degreee low (March 10)–low (May 9)–low Cycle ProgressionAND a 17–19 day high-high-high-(low) Cycle Progression in Gold. It arrived at the midpoint of the 20-week high-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression in Silver.
Gold & Silver both reached the convergence of multiple weekly HLS projections (1199.2–1213/GCQ & 1534.5–1573.5/SIU), fulfilling extreme downside targets & reinforcing the likelihood for an initial low on/around July 10th. The weekly trend patterns also corroborated that analysis.
Gold & Silver have set an initial (1–2 or 2–4 week) bottom & could rebound into the latest phase of the 7-week high-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression that precisely timed the early-June peak & reversal lower. That comes back into play on July 24–28th… and is also corroborated by the weekly trend pattern.
Although I do not like to get ahead of myself, or ahead of the markets, there is already an intriguing cycle convergence that could be reinforced by a rebound high on July 24–28th…
Gold has a consistent 9-week/~2-month low-low-low Cycle Progression that helped pinpoint the recent July 10th low. The next phase comes into play on Sept. 11–15th. If an intervening high is set on July 24–28th, that would perpetuate the 7-week high-high cycle and create a potential 7-week high-high-high-high-(low) Cycle Progression – also targeted for Sept. 11–15, 2017.
A drop into mid-to-late-Sept. ‘17 would also produce some wave-cycle symmetry (on a lower magnitude) when compared to the 2016 decline. In 2016, Gold sold off for ~5 months from its July peak to its Dec. low. That included a 14-week decline from its secondary high to its final low.
A drop into mid-Sept. 2017 would complete a ~5-month decline from the mid-April peak and a 14-week decline from the secondary high of early June. So, it is a scenario worth monitoring to see if impending action (of the next 2–4 weeks) corroborates that further.
On a higher magnitude, it would create a 21-month high (Mar. ’14)–low (Dec. ’15)–low (Sept. ’17) Cycle Progression. (That is the same 21-month cycle that helped pinpoint the Sept. 2011 all-time high in Gold, the culmination of a 21-month low-high-high-high Cycle Progression… and then spurred a 21-month drop into June 2013.)
Taking it another couple levels higher, the two biggest advances in Gold – in the past 30 years – began in Sept./Oct. 1999 & Sept./Oct. 2008. That creates a ~9-year low-low-(low) Cycle Progression that next comes into play in Sept./Oct. 2017.
Following those two multi-year bull markets, Gold peaked in Sept. 2011 and set a secondary high in Sept./Oct. 2012. The largest price decline in Gold’s history emerged from those two peaks. So, that 2-month period (Sept./Oct.) has spurred the three biggest moves of the past ~30 years.
5 & 6 years later is Sept./Oct. 2017. Could another major move emerge from that cycle?
If Silver makes it back down to ~13.50/SI (its Dec. ’15 low) by then, it would have taken exactly twice as much time to drop ~7.50/SI (3xs the 2.50 point range that has governed Silver for years) as it did to rally 7.50/SI in 2016 (7 months up/14 months down) – a form of 1×2 ‘squaring’ of price & time AND a reinforcement of that 21-month cycle.
(Keep in mind that Gold is NOT expected to drop to its late-2015 low and is NOT even expected to retest its late-2016 low if/as this is unfolding.)
Sept./Oct. 2017 is also when a second Dollar decline is expected to begin and when Crude is expected to set a secondary bottom and begin to move higher. So, all three markets – Gold, US Dollar & Crude – could set secondary (‘2’ or ‘B’) wave extremes and begin ‘3’ or ‘C’ wave moves in Sept./Oct. 2017… at the same time Middle East cycles collide. Hmmmm.
The XAU fulfilled projections for a drop into July 10th followed by a bounce…the XAU could shoot up to monthly resistance at ~85.10–85.60…”
Gold, Silver & XAU confirming projected lows on July 10th. Gold & Silver poised to rally into late-July and up to primary upside price targets, before turning back down in early-August. Sept. 2017 = Decisive cycle convergence!
See Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track for additional analysis and/or trading strategies.