Gold/Silver/Copper Tops; Inflation Peaking
08/31/11 INSIIDE Track: “Outlook 2011… Date With Destiny VIII
08–31-11 – August 2011 emphatically reinforced geophysical & geopolitical expectations for 2011. In a year that was expected to see major earth disturbances in Japan and then North America, the August 23rd, 5.8 earthquake in Virginia – that rattled most of the East Coast and then some – could not have been timed more appropriately. (A swarm of quakes struck Colorado on the same day.)
This ‘historic East Coast earthquake’ introduced millions of Americans to the instability that has plagued much of the globe in recent years. At the same time, Hurricane Irene began her steady march toward the same area of the country – an event that has also been described with many superlatives, including ‘historic’…
Middle East Cycles in 2011
August 2011 also saw the next domino fall – or almost fall – in fulfillment of Arab Unity Cycles that culminate/transition in 2011. This almost assures that dramatic changes – in perspectives as well as in reality – are in store for the primary focus in the Middle East… Jerusalem…
Much of the previous analysis – explaining these cycles – is posted on our website (www.insiidetrack.com). However, for the sake of newer subscribers, let me give a brief recap…
1 – Based on cycles spanning most of recorded history, the year 2011 pinpoints the time when a major transition was/is expected to take hold in the Middle East. At the center of this focus is the city of Jerusalem… which is expected to grow in significance in the coming months and coming years.
I called these cycles ‘Kingdom of Jerusalem Cycles’ due to the fact that many phases – of the 360-year cycle that is the foundation of this analysis – are directly linked to Jerusalem and/or Jews and/or Israel… and to battles for its control.
One of the most salient of these is what is commonly termed ‘the Battle for the Kingdom of Jerusalem’ that culminated in 1291 with the Fall of Acre. This was a crescendo in the Crusader-led battles for the Holy Land… and the time when defeat of the Crusaders was complete.
720 years later – or 2 revolutions of a 360-year cycle – is 2011.
These battles raged from 1258–1291. In an ironic twist, the ‘battle’ for a peace accord (a form of control) in the Middle East began in 1978 (720 years after 1258)…This would usher in what is already expected to be a dramatic period – from 2011 into 2018.
It is, however, the synergy of cycles – particularly 360-year cycles – that makes 2011 the most significant. 360 years after 1291, Jews were suffering one of the worst holocausts against them – in 1648–1651. This period included the Chmielnicki Massacres and is part of a decade – from 1648–1658 – that was devastating for Jews.
360 years later is 2011 (-2018).
Prior to 1291, there is also a series of 360-year & 720-year cycles that maintain a direct link (via this ongoing 360-degree sequence) and a direct application (dealing with both sides in the battle for the heart & soul of Jerusalem) to 2011 and the years that follow.
The 720-year Cycle is the most noteworthy. 720 years prior to 1291 is 571 AD… and the birth of Mohammed (and, as a result, the birth of Islam). I think the link between that event and today’s struggles is fairly clear.
720 years prior to 571 AD is the time that involved the desecration of the Jewish Temple – by Antiochus Ephiphenes – and the Macabeen Revolt.
720 years prior to then was the time when Omri – and then his son Ahab – ruled Israel. Omri rejected Jerusalem and set up Israel’s capital in Samaria (Israel became known as ‘Omriland’ during this time) while the majority of the people rejected YHWH (Yahweh; God… ‘I Am’), leading to the extinction of Israel as a nation.
A 1,440-year cycle connects this ancient time in Israel – when they rejected Jerusalem while rejecting YHWH (and, consequently lost their identity as a nation and were spread around the globe as a people) – with the birth of Mohammed/Islam and then with the period that begins in 2011.
And, as just demonstrated, this 1,440-year cycle breaks down into 720-year cycles & 360-year cycles… all of which point to 2011 as the beginning of a watershed time for Israel/Jews… [Not surprisingly, some Jewish scholars describe a cycle of 144 that equates to a seah and the ‘measure of a Mikvah’ (a purification rite in Judaism). 144 is also an important number in the Fibonacci Sequence and in Gann’s work.]
However, before the Battle for the Kingdom of Jerusalem reached fruition, Arab-Unity Cycles were projected to create the overthrow of multiple Middle East nations in 2010/2011… and set the stage for a new attempt at an Arab Union in the Middle East.
As explained previously, this was necessary so the individuals – who ruled these nations with a rod of iron and pursued certain goals for their own individual existence (like Egypt’s Camp David Accord with Israel) – would be taken out of the way to allow the religious fervor of the people to flare up. Over time, this could turn into a raging inferno that would ultimately be directed at Israel.
2011 has powerfully validated and fulfilled these cycles and these projections, with the fall of Libya providing the latest example. Saudi Arabia is still expected to be the biggest – and most salient – fall…
Iceland, Greece, Italy… Europe?
I am becoming more and more convinced that the next 2-3 years will be extremely challenging for Europe… and for the Euro. September 2011 is an exact 3-year cycle from September 2008, when the financial crisis inIceland went parabolic and when all three of Iceland’s major commercial banks collapsed while their stock market imploded & their currency plummeted over 90%.
It is when the next domino could fall in Europe’s ongoing, economic debacle. If the coming days can validate this technical scenario, September 2011 could also usher in the first stage of a sharp, 3-month drop in the Euro…Greece & Italy continue to take center stage with regard to economic struggles in Europe…If my Euro analysis is accurate, it could provide another convincing warning sign that Europe is on shaky and volatile ground – geopolitically AND geophysically…
The emergence of Hurricane Irene brought with her a renewed sounding of alarms regarding 2016 and the U.S. ability to accurately monitor weather based on recent budget cuts that could create (at least) an 18-month gap between when the current polar satellites die out and when replacement ones will be placed into orbit. This was first publicized in April – during budget negotiations – but the discussion actually dates back to 2007.
Keep in mind three things when considering this warning (described in the following April 15, 2011 article from www.spacenews.com) and the expectations and anxieties leading into 2016–2018:
1 – This assumes that there are no further spending cuts spurred by – perhaps – a second shoe dropping in the U.S. economy, between now and 2014–2015.
2 – This assumes that the U.S. – which is closing down its Space Shuttle program in 2011 – will have open access to launch and repair/maintain new satellites when the time is right.
3 – 2016–2018 is also when Jupiter Cycles come into play. This might mean something. It might mean nothing. So, for now, file it away for future reference…
08/31/11 – 3-6 Month+ Outlook: Gold & Silver have just passed through what could be the most cyclically-significant period in many years. As stated last month…
August 2011 is a 40-Year period of testing from when the U.S. slammed shut the Gold window in August 5–15, 1971. August 2011 – 40 years later – could be the time when the Dollar/Gold relationship sees a sharp turnabout…
August 2011 could provide another dramatic turnaround in this Dollar/Gold relationship. Not only is this time frame the culmination of a 40-year cycle, it is also the most important point within Gold’s current 19-year cycle. This cycle was described in 1998 & 1999 when forecasting a major, multi-year low for Gold in 1999 – 19 years from its 1980 peak.
As explained then (in INSIIDE Track & Cycle of Time Reports), Gold was expected to enter a major bull market that should last for at least .618 (12 years) of the next 19-year cycle. 2011 is that 12th year!
In synch with this 12-year cycle, Gold previously bottomed in July/August 1999 – setting a double-bottom during those months. So, August 2011 was exactly 12 years from the start of Gold’s bull market…
Gold & Silver remain divergent, with Silver only rebounding about .618 of its May 2011 decline. So, as of now, the early-May 2011 peak remains the highest level that Silver has attained – a peak that was set during a very consistent 37-month cycle.
3-6 month, 6-12 month and even 1-2 year traders & investors should begin to lighten up on long positions in Gold & Silver, looking for a sharp correction in the coming months.
Copper – after retesting important resistance in July (around 455.0/HGU) did see a quick drop in August and set a low during the week of August 8–12th, extending a 90-degree/3-month cycle – that already created the mid-Nov., mid-Feb. & mid-May turning points – and was expected to create another low…
A 13-week high-low-low-(low?) Cycle Progression comes into play on November 7–11, 2011, when this next bottom is most likely…That is when an 18-month low-low-(?) Cycle Progression and a 10-month high-high-(?)Cycle Progression converge.
November/December 2011 is exactly 3 years from the December 2008 low and is the 10-Year Anniversary of the November 2001 major bottom. Since Copper did NOT turn its intra-year trend up and did NOT give a weekly close above the February 2011 peak, it has turned its 2-3 month & 3-6 month outlook bearish and could drop into late-2011.
Copper has just rebounded to retest its year-opening low (support turned into resistance) – at 419.8–426.0/HGZ – and should reverse lower if a new decline is taking hold.
The Continuous CRB Index spiked to a new low – in fulfillment of its weekly trend pattern – and then rebounded…It would take a weekly close – and then a monthly close – below this range (below 613.49) to turn the intra-year trend down & confirm projections for a major peak in commodity prices in 2011…
This price level is doubly significant since the CRB’s previous multi-year top – from July 2008 – was very close by – at 615.04. This is a key level of ‘resistance turned into support’.
If/when this support is broken, it would be a clear sign that the CRB – and commodities as a whole – have confirmed the onset of a larger-degree decline.”
360-Year Cycle (9 xs 40-Year Cycle) Corroborating 40-Year Cycle; 2011 Ushers in Dramatic Period (into 2018/2019) for Gold, Oil & Middle East… and Onset of Deflationary Period. Watch Mid-point in 2015.