Gold & Silver in Currency War
07/19/17 Weekly Re-Lay Alert – Currency Wars Rage On:
“A multi-front battle continues with the Dollar facing off against the Euro, the Yen facing off against both the Euro & the Dollar (moving at opposition to one and then the other), Gold & Silver off to the side in various skirmishes and digital (crypto) currency suffering serious casualties after accumulating swift & sizeable gains.
Much of this is white noise, distracting attention away from the underlying struggles while redirecting focus from one arena to another… and then back again. My focus remains on 2018–2021 when European Unification Cycles are expected to have a significant impact on these Currency Wars AND, perhaps more significantly, when XDR/SDR cycles converge (most synergistic in 2018/2019).
Last year’s inclusion of the Yuan in the IMF’s SDR calculation powerfully corroborated that outlook and this year’s crypto-explosion is again reinforcing it. If my outlook is accurate – and this entire 2013–2021 period (see 40-Year Cycle analysis) includes a major setback for the US Dollar’s global hegemony – these accelerating developments for the SDR (effectively a basket of currencies) fit perfectly.
As expected, the 2017 Midpoint (mid-June–mid-July period) triggered several dramatic reversals, including the bubble bursting in Ethereum/Ether and to a lesser extent, Bitcoin. Both digital currencies peaked in precise lockstep with daily & weekly cycles that projected a multi-month top for June 5–11, 2017. Since then, prices plummeted.
Ethereum surrendered over 65% of its peak value (dropping from ~414 to ~138 in 5 weeks) as Bitcoin lost about 40% (dropping from ~3025 to ~1836 in those same 5 weeks). In both cases, this had them attacking their primary downside targets – the ‘4th wave of lesser degree’ support (May 27th low) at 120/Ether & 1908/Bitcoin.
It also had these cryptocurrency completing a textbook ‘c = a’ correction in which the two declines were of similar magnitude (downside targets = 146/Ether & 1980/Bitcoin). These primary downside targets do not automatically trigger a bottom, but do fulfill key objectives for these declines.
July 2017 represents a 7-Year Cycle in Bitcoin as well, dating back to the launching of the Mt. Gox exchange in July 2010. Mt. Gox’ demise became apparent at the mid-point of that 7-Year Cycle (in Jan/Feb. 2014) that timed the freeze of all Bitcoin withdrawals, resulting in a loss of over a third of its value. July/August 2017 pinpoints the next phase of this 3.5 Year low-low-(low) Cycle Progression & a 7-Year Cycle from the onset (low) of that exchange.
The action of these digital currencies has been highlighted in recent months to set the table for what is expected in the coming years. There is likely to be increasing volatility & uncertainty in that realm as a seismic shift steadily unfolds in currency markets – remarkably similar to, but more intense than, what has been seen every 40 years since the start of America (a cycle that continues back to the 1250’s and potentially earlier).
As for more immediate concerns…
Gold & Silver have rallied since fulfilling projections for a multi-week low on July 10th, the latest phase of a ~2-month/60-degreee low (March 10)–low (May 9)–low Cycle ProgressionAND a 17–19 day high-high-high-(low) Cycle Progression in Gold.
They have neutralized their daily downtrends multiple times but need daily closes above 1244.1/GCQ & 1634.5/SIU to reverse those trends to up.
That is also necessary to escalate this rebound and increase the potential for an overall bounce into July 24–28th – the latest phase of the 7-week high-high-high-(high) Cycle Progressionthat precisely timed the early-June peak.”
Gold & Silver rebounding from projected lows on July 10th. They are projected to rally into late-July and up to primary upside price targets (see publications), before turning back down in early-August. Sept. 2017 = Decisive cycle convergence!
See Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track for additional analysis and/or trading strategies.