Gold & Silver Fulfill 6-Month Advance
07/20/16 Weekly Re-Lay Alert – “3–6–12 Month Signals Maturing”:
“In mid-Dec. 2015, Gold & Silver triggered 1–4 week, 3–6 month & 6–12 month buy signals (see Weekly Re-Lays). The 1–4 week signal preceded the others, which occurred simultaneously. That combination added clarity to the outlook for 2016.
Even before those signals were triggered, the intra-year analysis was for a surge into mid-2016 – the largest & longest advance since 2011 (which is why 2016 was being termed ‘The Golden Year’) – to be followed by a secondary low in late-2016, after the intra-year high had taken hold.
Once these signals were generated, it reinforced that outlook – showing that both a 3–6 month & a 6–12 month advance were possible.
Within that context, the 3–6 month advance was the higher probability (naturally) but it was also – as is normally the case – expected to be in the form of multiple waves… up and down.
Gold & Silver fulfilled the 3-month advance – with a rally into March 11th and then pulled back into late-March (28th).
They entered the next phase and were projected to see multiple advances in 2Q 2016, with the finale accelerating higher into late-June. They fulfilled that and simultaneously fulfilled the 6-month advance.
By providing a week of carry-over buying, Gold & Silver also provided the minimum necessary to be characterized as ‘6–12 month advances’.
In doing so, Gold also perpetuated a 14–15 week low (Sept. ’15)–low (Dec. ’15)–low (late-Mar. ’16)–high (July 5–15th; July 8th was precise 102-day low-low-high) Cycle Progression… AND a ~9-month/38–week (~270-degree) high (Jan. ’15)–high (Oct. ’15)–high (July 5–8th) Cycle Progression.
It also completed successive advances of equal duration (5 weeks) from March 28–May 2nd and May 31–July 6th… setting the stage for a top.
Gold’s July 6th peak – and July 11th double top – also fulfilled what had been discussed while Gold was bottoming in late-2015…
When anticipating a late-Nov. 2015 bottom (Nov. 27th was – and remains – the lowest weekly close in Gold), it was partially due to an uncanny ~4-month cycle that had governed multiple lows.
That 4-month cycle had begun with the early-July 2014 peak (precisely 2 years/720 degrees before the recent early-July 2016 peak) and the ensuing ~4-month drop into Nov. ’14. That was followed by successive lows in March, July & Nov. 2015 – each about 4 months apart.
It was speculated in late-2015 that this ~4-month cycle could soon shift and begin timing subsequent highs… offset from the low-low cycle.
That is a common occurrence… though not something that is ‘written in stone’, so to speak. The point?
Gold initially topped on March 4th and then experienced a retest of the highs and sharp reversal lower on March 11th.
4 months later, Gold topped on July 6th and then experienced a retest of the highs and sharp reversal lower on July 11th.
Is the 4-month cycle beginning to govern the highs? If so, watch early-Nov. 2016. (Oh yeah… that also happens to be Election 2016!)
For now, the important point is that Gold’s (and Silver’s) surge into mid-2016 fulfilled many cycles, wave projections & timing indicators… and coincided with precisely when the Dollar Index turned its weekly trend back up.
Does that signal a top in Precious Metals?
No.
But the reversal of Gold’s daily trend does… at least on a 2–4 week basis…
Gold & Silver are showing (very preliminary) signs of another intermediate reversal, not much different from the lows in late-March & late-May as well as the highs in Feb., March & May. Since its low, Gold has swung in 4–5 week movements – with the latest being a second 5-week advance…
Since this comes after Gold tested its multi-quarter LLH and Silver tested June’s monthly LHR (extreme upside target – at 21.19/SIU), the stage is being set for a 1–2 month (or longer) peak. Silver further corroborated that by peaking within 1–2 weeks of testing & holding its weekly LHRand within 1–2 days of testing & holding its daily LHR.
So, on three distinct levels, Silver reached extreme upside objectives in the first two days of July – ushering in the ideal scenario for a blow-off top…
3–6 month & 6–12 month traders and investors should be holding partial long positions in Gold (~25%) & Silver (~50%) from mid-Dec. (~1046–1076/GC & 13.62–13.88/SI).
These traders should have just exited half of the remaining Gold position (~25% of original position) on today’s close (~1315/GCQ) w/avg. gains of about $24,000/contract.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
Gold & Silver have adhered to expectations for an initial ~6-month advance to confirm ‘2016- The Golden Year’ is valid. As described in INSIIDE Track – for over a year – there are behind-the-scenes events unfolding that set the stage for a much bigger advance in 2017–2018, particularly during one decisive period. A few months (most/all of 3Q 2016) of consolidation are expected and would help hone expectations for when & where the next multi-year low (and ideal buying opportunity) is most likely.