Gold & Silver Fulfill Mid-Dec. Cycle Low
Gold & Silver Fulfill Mid-Dec. Cycle Low;
Surge into Feb. 2018 Projected!
XAU (Gold Stocks) Lead Reversal Higher.
12/16/17 Weekly Re-Lay:
“Gold & Silver have initially bottomed after dropping into the first half of Dec. – the same time that Gold bottomed in 2015 & 2016. A low by/in mid-Dec. would perpetuate an annual/360-degree cycle and be in sync with weekly & monthly cycles in the XAU.
That potential was/is corroborated by diverse indicators including the weekly trend patterns & the weekly HLS – both of which favored a low & reversal higher taking hold this past week (Dec. 11 – 15)…
One of the noteworthy features of Gold’s recent decline is that it bottomed at 1238.3/GCG – a little more than $2.00/oz above the high of its year-opening range (1236.0/GCG). That allowed Gold to maintain its intra-year uptrend as it retraced about 50% of its intra-year gains.
As long as Gold remains above its mid-2017 low, which it is expected to do, the 2 – 3 year outlook would not change. (Only the timing of the third sequential low has been delayed.) The primary outlook for 2017 – and for the 2 – 3 year outlook – was for a 3 – 4 month advance to begin the year. That was expected to spur a ~2-month reaction lower and create a mid-2017, multi-quarter low…
The XAU fulfilled its 2 – 3 month outlook & 6 – 12 month outlook by dropping to new multi-month lows in Dec. 2017 – the latest phase of an 11 – 12 month low-low-low Cycle Progression.
It did that while dropping right to its weekly HLS at 75.77/XAU – signaling an impending multi-month bottom. The recent low also created a 21 – 22 week high-low-(low) Cycle Progression originating from the early-Feb. intra-year peak.
For all intents & purposes, the XAU has traded sideways throughout 2017. Following its ‘1’ or ‘A’ wave rally & subsequent pullback of 2016, the XAU created a lesser-degree ‘1’ wave rally into Feb. 2017 and has since traced out an ‘a-b-c’ decline that forms the subsequent ‘2’ wave retracement (‘1-2’, ‘1-2’) – from early-Feb. into early-Dec.
That ‘a-b-c’ decline (Feb. ’17 high – July ’17 low – Sept. ’17 high – Dec. ’17 low) has created some wave similarity – in which the ‘c’ wave decline nearly matched the magnitude of the preceding ‘a’ wave decline – reinforcing that perceived wave structure.
The interesting & somewhat constructive aspect of this ~10-month correction is that each test & retest of support has generated very little downside follow-through. Although the XAU spiked to new lows in mid-March, May, July & Dec., each time was only by .5 – 1.5 basis points and never giving a weekly close below the preceding low.
That is a sign of resilience and of a slowly developing (secondary) bottom that is struggling to trigger new selling pressure each time support is tested. As a result, it could give way to a quick surge from that support.
On Dec. 11 & 12, the HUI and GDX diverged from the XAU – spiking to new lows as the XAU held above its recent low. That reinforced the developing low – corroborating cycle lows & weekly extremes – and coincided with the XAU triggering a 1 – 2 week buy signal with the potential for an initial surge into Dec. 15 or 18.
That was validated with the sharp rally of Dec. 13 – 15 and allowed the XAU to reach, exceed & close the week above its weekly LHR (79.78).
It needs a daily close above 80.37/XAU to turn its daily trend up and a daily close above 80.66/XAU to turn the intra-month trend up and to project additional upside, beyond mid-month.
Intermediate (2 – 4 week & 1 – 3 month) traders can be entering Gold stocks or related instruments [reserved for subscribers].” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
The XAU is leading Gold & Silver as they all fulfill analysis for multi-month bottoms in Dec. 2017. The Dec. 11/12 buy signal in the XAU is expected to spur a sharp advance into Jan/Feb. 2018 and potentially reach [reserved for subscribers].
Depending on action in January 2018, precious metals could trigger an overall 6 – 9 month advance!
See Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track for additional analysis and/or trading strategies.