Gold & Silver Fulfill Upside
04/12/17 Weekly Re-Lay Alert:
“Gold & Silver have now fulfilled almost all of the 2–4 week upside potential with Gold remaining in its daily uptrend (and turning the intra-month trend up) & attacking 1284.0/GCM (both its upside target AND monthly resistance) while Silver repeatedly tested & held ~18.500/SIK (the current phase of the 2.50 point range succession; 13.50–16.00–18.50–21.00/SI – where most multi-month lows & highs have occurred).
Silver remains neutral, as discussed this past weekend, and could turn down IF/when a daily close below 17.735/SIK materialized.
Until that occurs, the underlying intermediate uptrend should be respected (which could spur a spike above 18.540/SIK – the one remaining upside target, based on Silver’s weekly trend pattern). On a near-term basis, the 17.735/SIK low created a short-term, upside LLH objective at 18.635/SIK.
When Gold began the month & projected another 1–2 week rally, the April 1, 2017 Weekly Re-Lay summed up the outlook & objectives in this manner:
Gold & Silver bottomed during the latest phase of an 11-week low-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression (in Silver) on March 6—10th… and have advanced since then.
On March 17th, Gold re-entered its weekly uptrend and turned its intra-year trend back up – projecting a rally back to the late-Feb. high of 1268.1/GCM…A spike above that level – and potentially to the ~1284.0/GCM area – remains a possibility and is corroborated by new monthly resistance.
Silver just did the same thing, re-entering its weekly uptrend & reaffirming the potential for a retest of its previous high (~18.50/SIK).”
With these upside expectations now being fully met, price action is joining intermediate cycles in anticipating a pullback in precious metals… cycles (including in the XAU) that project the next significant bottom to be set in May 2017. On a near-term basis, it would take a daily close below 1263.7/GCM to signal weakness.
The XAU remains in a daily uptrend and also turned its intra-month trend up – projecting an extension to this rebound, into mid-April.
Monday’s spike low and subsequent daily 2 Close Reversal higher projected a new 2–3 day advance that has allowed the XAU to fulfill all of the (multiple) upside targets at 87.41–88.23/XAU, which included March’s monthly Raw SPR, LHR & Intermediate LLH.
April’s monthly resistance (87.93–89.27/XAU) overlaps those upside targets and is just below a critical range of 2–3 month resistance at 89.72–90.03/XAU. That range includes the high of the 2017 opening range (first three weeks of new year) at 90.03/XAU, April’s Intra-month PLLR at 89.86/XAU & a .618 rally objective at 89.72/XAU.
So, by remaining in a daily uptrend and signaling this short-term extension, the XAU ushered in the potential for a slightly larger rebound. From a cyclic perspective, the next multi-month low is still expected in May 2017 – ideally [reserved for subscribers]…
Copper is another metal worth updating as it reinforces analysis for a 3–6 month peak in mid-to-late-Feb. 2017 (when cycles converged) – projected to occur after a spike above 2.8000/HG. As discussed while that was unfolding, Copper was showing all the earmarks of a 5th wave culmination and was poised for a significant sell-off.
The minimum downside objective is the 4th wave of lesser degree support around 2.4500/HGK… although lower levels are possible. An initial low could be seen around mid-April – the midpoint of a consistent 10-week cycle AND the latest phase of a 14–15 week low-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression.”
Gold is attacking monthly projected resistance (1284.2–1298.5/GCM) as Silver approaches critical level around 18.50/SIK. Gold stocks poised for mid-April reversal lower… and drop into May 2017. See Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track for additional details.