Gold, Silver & Gold Stocks Bounce
09/07/16 Weekly Re-Lay Alert – ‘Gold & Silver Geometry Redux?’:
“Gold & Silver are closely adhering to multiple levels of geometric cycles, discussed in recent months.
Perpetuating the pattern of early-month reversals (30-degree cycle), metals were projected to set a secondary high in early-August and then experience a sharp drop into late-August, the latest phase of a ~90-degree cycle that last timed the late-May lows… and previously timed intermediate lows (in either Gold, Silver or both) in late-Nov. ’15 & late-Feb. ’16…
That was expected to lead to a quick, sharp rebound into Sept. 6–16th, when a recurring 9–10 week Silver cycle came back into play.
So far, so good.
Gold & Silver dropped into late-August with Gold briefly spiking below 1308.0/GCZ… and both are rallying, right on schedule…
Gold & Silver fulfilled intermediate expectations for a sharp drop into late-August – and down to 1–2 month targets – and an ensuing rally into early-Sept. That was/is expected to set the stage for another drop, potentially lasting into early-October.
Gold has a combination of weekly LHRs at 1347–1357.1/GCZ (extreme intra-week upside objectives), with an upside wave target (where the current rebound would equal the previous rebound) at 1361.2/GCZ.
Monthly resistance reinforces that – at 1345.1–1364.3/GCZ – & is joined by Silver’s monthly resistance at 19.94–20.52/SIZ.
Silver’s weekly LHR (20.52/SIZ) coincides with that & is close to its monthly 2nd Close Resistance(20.44/SIZ) – providing extreme resistance for this week.
Similar to currencies, Gold & Silver rebounded enough to neutralize their 1–2 month downtrends but would not turn them positive until daily closes above 1357.2/GCZ & 20.22/SIZ.
If a high is seen in the current week, and Silver subsequently makes it back down to retest recent lows, it would reinforce a slightly larger-degree cycle scenario in which Silver (and likely Gold) see an overall correction into Nov. 2016 before a Major secondary low (higher than the Dec. ’15 low, but the lowest low since mid-2016) takes hold.
3–6 month & 6–12 month traders and investors should be holding partial long positions in Gold & Silver (~25%) from mid-Dec. (~1046–1076/GC & 13.62–13.88/SI).
Hold these until [reserved for subscribers only].
Partial exit signals were triggered in Gold (early-July) & Silver (early-August), reinforcing cycle analysis for an intermediate top.
The XAU dropped sharply during the second half of August, initially bottoming in sync with Gold & Silver cycles in late-August. While completing that initial drop, the XAU twice neutralized its weekly uptrend, leading into last week, identifying it as the optimum time for an initial low.
That was expected to spur a rebound into Sept. 7–14th before a new leg down becomes more likely.”
Gold, Silver & XAU bouncing into early-Sept. cycle highs after precisely fulfilling outlook for sharp drop into late-August. Gold & Silver projected to peak at 1345.1–1364.3/GCZ & 19.94–20.52/SIZ… before entering expected drop into early-October – with the next downside target for Gold at 1260.0/GC.
Additional drop – into November 2016 – becoming more likely, as well. Ultimate downside price targets still significantly lower… and should wait until 4Q 2016 to be tested. See publications for additional analysis & trading strategies. Also, see 40-Year Cycle: Golden Years & 2016 – The Golden Year Reports for details on outlook for late-2016 into 2018 (and beyond).