Gold & Silver Vulnerable II
Gold & Silver Vulnerable II
Failing to Confirm a Low
XAU Projects More Downside
11/25/17 Weekly Re-Lay:
“Gold & Silver remain neutral on a 1 – 2 month basis and neutral on a 2 – 4 week basis – locked in a 6 – 8 week trading range between the Sept. 20 highs & Oct. 6 lows. Both rallied into Nov. 17 & perpetuated a 21-day low-low-(high) Cycle Progression before pulling back.
The next phase of that cycle is on Dec. 8 & could time another high…Gold needs to produce a weekly close above 1297.0/GCZ to re-enter its weekly uptrend and confirm a multi-month low.
In the interim, Gold & Silver should not give weekly closes below 1262.8/GCZ & 16.640/SIZ.
On a larger-scale basis, the conclusion is still that Gold & Silver set multi-year lows in late-2015 and secondary (‘2’ or ‘B’ wave) lows in late-2016.
That was expected to trigger a ~4-month rally & ~2-month decline in the first half of 2017 (the ‘1’ & ‘2’ waves of a developing ‘3’ or ‘C’ wave advance) and then a lesser-degree, 1 – 2 month rally & 2 – 4 week decline into late-3Q 2017 (it ended up stretching into early-4Q 2017) before entering a ‘3’ of ‘3’ of ‘3’ (or ‘3’ of ‘3’ of ‘C’; in either case the wave structures & characteristics are very similar).
While all of this has unfolded & fulfilled the majority of the published outlook, Gold & Silver have not yet confirmed the establishment of that most recent low…Gold & Silver are stuck in no-man’s-land, with most indicators still pointing up. Until those are confirmed, however, traders should view these metals with a healthy skepticism – expecting Gold & Silver to prove themselves soon.
The XAU remains in a much different wave structure, weaker than Gold & Silver and still in monthly & weekly downtrends.
It has set new multi-month lows in November but has not even managed to turn the daily trend up. As a result, those lows are unconfirmed and could be violated to the downside.
The XAU did manage to close above 81.02/XAU and neutralize its daily downtrend (twice) but would not turn that trend up until a daily close above 82.15/XAU. In addition, it would still take a daily close above 82.60/XAU to turn the intra-month trend up and give a more convincing sign of a bottom.
Until that occurs, the intermediate trend remains down and could spur a lower spike – potentially testing monthly support & related targets at 77.60 – 78.50/XAU.”
Gold & Silver have consolidated since rallying into daily cycles on Nov. 17 and again holding monthly resistance – increasing the potential for some negative pressure as the XAU remains on track for a drop to 77.50 – 78.50. The daily trend pattern in the XAU projects an imminent drop back to the lows.
See Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track for additional analysis and/or trading strategies.