Gold/Silver Completing April Surges
04/30/16 Weekly Re-Lay:
“Gold & Silver surged again, reinforcing April cycle lows and the onset of a new impulse wave higher. Traders should be holding partial Gold & Silver longs from mid-Dec., w/open gains increasing by ~$6,000/contract in Gold & ~$4,000/contract in Silver, during the past week [Futures Trading Involves Substantial Risk; See Hypothetical Disclaimer] …
Gold & Silver remain positive after surging from intermediate cycles lows in the first half of April… and through April 19th, in fulfillment of Date of Aggression cycles. After consolidating for a week – following the April 21st highs – Gold & Silver could not reverse their daily trends down and escalate that correction any further.
Gold turned its daily 21 MAC back up and then, on April 28th, broke above weekly resistance & triggered an outside-day/2 Close Reversal higher – projecting a new surge. All of this reinforces the overall outlook for a second advance in April–June, with a multi-month peak likely to wait until June 2016.
Silver has now exceeded its May 2015 high (17.712/SI) – confirming that the next phase is underway – nearly reaching its intra-month extreme upside objective for April (LHR) at 18.140/SIN. If/when Silver exceeds 18.040/SI, it will complete the largest advance since 3Q 2013 – surpassing the magnitude of the Dec. ’14–Jan. ’15 rally.
Ultimately, that Jan. 2015 (continuous) high is the level that needs to be exceeded – since it represents a type of ‘4th wave of lesser degree’ in Silver’s 4+year downtrend. Simultaneously, that pinpoints 1–2 year resistance, the 3–6 month primary target & the ultimate confirmation point for a new bull market.
Gold’s comparable level is 1307.8/GC, the target that has been discussed the past couple months (~1305–1315.0/GC). Both metals are within striking distance of testing – and or surpassing – those vital confirmation points.
3–6 month & 6–12 month traders and investors should be holding partial (about 50%) long positions in Gold & Silver from mid-Dec. (~1046–1076/GC & 13.62–13.88/SIH). .” [Refer to April 30, 2016 Weekly Re-Lay for expounded trading strategy revolving around potential top at ~1305/GC & ~18.04/SI.]
Gold finally broke out of consolidation – after nearly 8 weeks – following its outside-day/2 Close Reversal buy signal on April 28th. That came after it had neutralized its daily uptrend multiple times, but failed to reverse that trend down.
As a result, long positions remained intact (a daily trend reversal would have triggered some additional profit-taking) and Gold is moving toward its next upside objective at 1305–1315.0/GCM.
Silver also turned positive again – after trading sideways for a week following its April 21st spike high – and is spurring a renewed attempt at exceeding 18.040/SIN and providing its most important level of upside confirmation.
These advances should continue to be volatile with 1–2 week surges followed by 1–2 week congestion phases as both metals reaffirm that 2016 is The Golden Year.” [Refer to April 30, 2016 Weekly Re-Lay for additional analysis on developing signals, and expectations for a 1–2 month peak in early-May.]