Gold/Silver & Gold Stocks Peaking
11/01/16 Weekly Re-Lay Alert:
“Gold & Silver have rebounded since fulfilling analysis for a multi-month drop into early-October and down to at least ~1260.0/GCZ.
The overall outlook remains for another, more significant, low to take hold in November – ideally on Nov. 7–18, 2016 – when Silver has the greatest synergy of cycles converging. [See the Oct. & Nov. 2016 INSIIDE Tracks for more details.]
One thing that…could have a dual fulfillment with a high AND a low – is the 8–9 week high-high-high-high Cycle Progression in Gold – that recurs on Oct. 31–Nov. 11, 2016.
Based on normal Cycle Progression rules AND the intermediate trend, that cycle was expected to invert and time a subsequent low. Instead, with Gold & Silver taking longer to match previous rebounds, Gold has extended its rally into that weekly cycle – increasing the potential for an intermediate top.
That does not eliminate the potential for a quick sharp drop to an intermediate low – by/on Nov. 11th… Silver has only neutralized its daily downtrend once, so it has not altered the outlook and raises the likelihood for a rebound peak in the next 1–2 days.
Gold & Silver extended the duration of their rebounds allowing Gold to nearly match the magnitude of its two previous rebounds (since the July peak) – a normal example of wave equivalence…
If a peak is seen in the first 3–4 trading days of November, Gold & Silver would perpetuate the geometric, 30-degree (30-day) cycle that spanned the early-July, early-Aug. & early-Sept. highs and the early-Oct. low.
That would still allow time for Silver to drop to its lows (as long as it does not reverse its daily trend to up in the interim) in Nov. To reiterate from last week, Silver sees the majority of the magnitude of its declines in a 3–4 day period – as it did leading into the July 8th, Aug. 22nd, Sept. 12th & Oct. 7th lows.
So, it would not be surprising to see a similar scenario leading into a November low.
The XAU has rebounded since fulfilling its early-Oct. (& 2–3 month) downside price objective by dropping to 78–83.00/XAU.
At the same time, it fulfilled intermediate timing/ cycle objectives by dropping into Oct. 3–7th & perpetuating a 16–19 week high-high-low-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression AND a ~36-week high-low-(low) Cycle Progression.
It turned its daily trend to up, extending this bounce and closing in on an intermediate cycle high in early-November.
That is when a 42-day/6-week high-high-(high) Cycle Progression comes into play – projecting an intermediate high on ~Nov. 3rd.
The XAU could wait until Dec. 2016 before setting a final pullback low**. That is when an ~11-month low-low cycle recurs and is when a .618 retracement (29 weeks up/18 weeks down) would be fulfilled.
(**Most of its highs & lows are offset from the highs & lows in Gold & Silver, with the Dec. ’15 Gold & Silver bottom and Jan. ’16 XAU bottom – as well as the July ’16 Gold & Silver peak and August ’16 XAU peak – providing perfect examples of that.)
And, if the XAU sets a intervening high on Nov. 1–4th, mid-Dec. would be the next phase of that 6-week high-high-high-(low?) Cycle Progression.
If the XAU matches the magnitude of its two previous rebounds – both in September – it would rally 11.46–12.70 points and peak at 91.34–92.58/XAU.
Corroborating that, the two rallies in this overall rebound (Oct. 11–Oct. 25th & Oct. 27–present) would be of equal magnitude (8.33 points each) if the XAU reached 91.75.”
Gold & Silver entering critical cycle converges in November… with potential for early-Nov. high and sharp 3–4 day drop into Nov. 11, 2016. Gold stocks (XAU Index) are corroborating that and projecting an early-Nov. peak followed by an overall drop into Dec. 2016. Copper continues to validate analysis for new bull market. See publications for additional analysis & trading strategies. Also, see 40-Year Cycle: Golden Years & 2016 – The Golden Year Reports for details on outlook for late-2016 into 2018 (and beyond).