Mid-Dec. ’15 Poised to Trigger Stock Sell-off

Mid-Dec. ’15 Poised to Trigger Stock Sell-off;
Troubling Times Begin in late-Dec. ‘15…
Early-Nov. Short Positions Intact.

11/28/15 Weekly Re-Lay: “3–6 month & 6–12 month traders should have been selling in early-Nov…As conveyed the past 6–12 months, the real trouble has been expected to wait until aftermid-Dec. to materialize…

Stock Indices marked time this past week, bringing them to within 2–3 weeks of the fateful mid-Dec. 2015 time frame.  As cited since Oct. 2014, mid-Dec. 2015 is the next phase of the 32–33 Week Cycle that timed the mid-Sept. 2014 peak (before a sharp drop into mid-Oct. 2014) and the ensuing late-April/early-May 2015 peaks. 

All along, this phase has been forecast to pinpoint a subsequent high (expected to be an equal or lower high in most Indices) and then usher in a more precarious period for equities.

The mid-Sept. ’14 peak ushered in a sharp 2–4 week drop into mid-Oct. ’14.  In key Indices, that produced an initial ‘4-Shadow’ signal that projected a final high to follow… before a more significant decline became likely.

In true synergistic fashion, the subsequent high took hold (in a sequential manner, with some Indices peaking in Nov./Dec. 2014 and others stretching final peaks into April/May 2015) and was confirmed just as other cycles – like the 17-Year Cycle of Stock Corrections – were projecting a ~20% drop in 2Q/3Q 2015.

In an escalation of the Sept. ’14 phase – of the 32–33 Week Cycle – the late-April/early-May phase ushered in a 2–4 month drop into late-August–late-Sept. 2015.

If this escalation continues – as is expected – the mid-Dec. 2015 phase is likely to usher in a 2–4 quarter (~6–12 month) drop into the second half of 2016.  The precise weeks are Dec. 7–11th &Dec. 14–18th.  That overlaps the series of 14–15 week cycles that has governed the SP 500… and which next comes into play on Nov. 30–Dec. 11th

Stock Indices have maintained their daily uptrends, limiting the duration & magnitude of any sell-offs.  That could remain the case during the first week of December as the Indices near a very decisive time in mid-Dec.  As emphasized all year, that is (after) when the ‘real trouble’ is anticipated..

3–6 month & 6–12 month traders/investors should have re-entered the short side of the Indices (except NQZ) on Oct. 29/30–Nov. 6th and should …”   TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK.

From a cyclic perspective, little has changed from 4Q 2014, when the Roadmap for 2015/2016 was first published.  After a projected 20% decline in the middle third of 2015, equities were projected to see a strong advance to begin 4Q 2015 before entering a more damaging period immediately after mid-Dec. 2015.  That danger zone is only a few weeks away.