Middle East Cycles Shift in 2011!
10/28/10 INSIIDE Track: “Outlook 2011… The Culmination of MAJOR Cycles
10–28-10 – The time has come, at last. The year 2011 is upon us. The culmination – and simultaneous inception – of a myriad of MAJOR cycles – some 60, 360, 660, 720, 1,440, 1,980 and even 3,960 years in duration – reaches fruition in 2011. So, now what?
There are several relevant factors that should be discussed as part of this analysis. The first is a quick review of what cycles are, what they do, what are their strengths… and what are their weaknesses. For this explanation, I will quote straight from the Tech Tip Reference Library:
What cycles ARE… is a measuring and projection of time assuming (as all technical analysis does) that “history repeats itself”. However, do not expect history to repeat itself in the same fashion, at the same place and in the same degree as it did originally.
If it did, it would indicate that all of life is simply revolving in a circle. Instead, life (the markets, etc.) should be viewed as a spiral–constantly revolving in a circular pattern BUT never returning to exactly the same spot.”
With that said, there is another critical distinction that needs to be understood. It involves the following two applications of cycles. One is very specific while the other is much broader…
1 – Cycle Anniversary Dates
2 – Cycle Transitions
More often than not, my cycle analysis deals with specific dates (anniversaries) when corroborating events are expected… particularly in the markets. However, in this ongoing discussion, I am more focused on a major shift (overalltransition – from an old cycle to a new cycle) in the world. Let me explain…
A perfect example involves the entire ‘Focus 5768’ Series that projected a culmination AND transition of major cycles from late-2007 into 2011. Many of the expectations addressed in that series could not occur on a single date. Instead, they are shifts – in sentiment, attitudes & actions – that unfold over a period of time.
As I explained throughout that discussion, the Jewish Year of 5768 (late-Sept. ‘07–late-Sept. ‘08) was projected to trigger key events that would usher in this transition (into 2011) and trigger bigger changes & events, leading into2017/2018 (the start of a new cycle).
Coinciding with this, the 17-Year Cycle (and corresponding 34-Year Cycle) was also examined – as it reached fruition in late-2007 as well. It was projected to trigger the financial meltdown that would precede/trigger geopolitical events.
It is important to review some of the expectations that were originally discussed prior to 2008, since they provide the backdrop for this developing transition:
1 – Cycles in Syria would culminate in 2006 and involve a new (initial) conflict.
This was discussed in 2003–2005 (linking Syria with Lebanon), with the April 2005 INSIIDE Track providing the most comprehensive examination of these cycles and concluding:
“So, from a cyclic perspective it appears as though Syria has a date with destiny in 2006!”
On July 12, 2006, Hezbollah rocket attacks (a diversion for an anti-tank missile attack that resulted in the kidnapping of Israeli soldiers) triggered the ‘Second Lebanon War’… not long after Syria had been implicated in the assassination of Lebanon’s previous leader. The outward conflict lasted until August 14, 2006. But, this was just the tip of the iceberg…
June 2007 added further validation when Israel secretly bombed a nuclear installation in Syria, being supplied by N. Korea. It is the corresponding analysis, however, that leads into 2011. Events in Syria were merely projected to be a corroborating ‘landmark’ on this journey. As explained in subsequent analysis in the December 2005 INSIIDE Track:
“If Syria becomes the target in 2006, that will allow a little more time before the battle with Iran heats back up and before the focus turns more intently to Israel and Jerusalem…The 360-year cycle remains in control and is poised to impact Syria next…2006 ushers in this period and will likely begin with events in Syria.”
2 – Turkey would shift away from the West – and from Israel – and move toward Russia and its Arab/Islamic allies.
This has taken place and has been examined in previous issues. Turkey has been strengthening ties with Syria & Iran while playing the antagonist toward Israel. I will elaborate on Turkey (Magog) Cycles in a subsequent issue. However, the ramifications are already being felt.
3 – US Financial Markets would crash – beginning in late-2007 – with Stock Indices projected to plummet 35–50% in 1-3 years, the Dollar projected to break to 40-year lows and real estate/banking collapses to follow.
October 11, 2007 – exactly 17 Years from the October 11, 1990 low in Stock Indices and the onset of the 1990’s bull market – triggered the top in the DJIA & S+P 500… and the rest is history. The Dollar fell to a new, 40-year low in September 2007. Stock Indices fell 50% in the ensuing 17 months. Banks failed. Real Estate plummeted. And, then we hit the ‘eye of the storm’… where everything suddenly seems a bit calmer.
However, there are still many ramifications to play out…From a cycle perspective, it is almost as if 2000/2001 into 2007/2008 was one side of the storm, 2009/2010 was the eye, and 2011/2012 into 2017/2018 is the other side of the storm…
4 – Israel would make a major oil strike in 2008, ultimately (over the course of the ensuing decade) creating upheaval in the balance of power in the Middle East.
This one was off… by about two weeks. In mid-January 2009, Israel made a MAJOR natural gas discovery that has led to multiple other discoveries – including the latest that was announced on October 19th (see page 6).
It didn’t take long for Israel’s neighbors to begin the saber-rattling, followed closely by UN Secretary Ban Ki-Moon proclaiming that a conflict between Hezbollah & Israel (reflect back to 2006) was almost inevitable… and that Hezbollah had procured missiles from Syria. Hmmm.
Don’t forget that Hezbollah’s biggest backer is Iran and that many Iranian Revolutionary Guards were part of the 2006 Lebanon War against Israel. Ahmadinejad’s best way of destabilizing Israel – while trying to maintain a safe level of deniability – is via Hezbollah.
Back to the discussion of Israel and Oil…
One of the key factors in this discussion was the ‘Grand Cycle’ of 60 years. As explained in 2005, 1948 was when the largest oil field in the Middle East was discovered – the Ghawar field in Saudi Arabia. That is also whenAmerica’s (and the world’s) dependence on imported oil began to accelerate.
It is also what triggered much of the ensuing geopolitics – particularly between the US and Saudi Arabia. 25 years later – in 1973 – the US was able to link the price of oil to the Dollar, helping to support our economy (and debt), ever since.
In the ensuing 37 years, this was the driving force behind the US turning a blind eye to much of Saudi Arabia’s politics (including the cultivation of Wahhabism and the links to Osama bin laden, his family, and most of the 9/11 attackers).
However, my cycle analysis was showing that 2008 would be the culmination of this Saudi-dominated cycle and the onset of a new one, as Israel was projected to strike oil.
This is one of those instances where an ‘event’ is expected on the anniversary AND a transition is expected to unfold as a new cycle begins. The event took place – only two weeks off schedule – and the transition has slowly begun. As this new cycle has gotten underway, many corroborating ‘events’ have occurred.
And, with each new oil/gas discovery AND with the development of the initial gas discovery, Israel gets closer to energy-independence – a reality that is almost inconceivable to all her neighbors. So, I ask again…
How probable is it that a Middle East-based, Western-friendly democracy will be allowed to tap into this resource and possibly aid other Western-friendly democracies around the globe, as a result?…
2013: ‘Backed’ Into a Corner?
There is a related cycle (transition) that also validates this analysis… and could accelerate this process (from 2011 into 2017/2018). It comes into play in 2012/2013 and is intimately linked to all of these cycles.
The Al-Saud Dynasty conquered the Arabian Peninsula (along with the Islamic holy cities of Mecca & Medina) and founded the ‘Kingdom of Saudi Arabia’ in 1932. It went through its first ‘40-Year Period of Testing’ until 1972.
When a new, 40-Year Cycle began – in 1973 – the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia catapulted to the forefront of geopolitics and began to accumulate unimagined wealth through the sale of oil (and increasing global power via OPEC).
That 2nd 40-Year Cycle (the 40-Year Cycle has previously been described as a cycle of preparation before a momentous event) began with the Saudis and OPEC enacting an oil embargo on America (the day after they raised the benchmark price of oil by 70%) and blackmailing America to pressure Israel to withdraw from parts of the Sinai (that Israel had captured after being attacked by Egypt and Syria).
It lasted from October 1973 into March 1974 – overlapping a 50% drop in the stock market during 1973–1974, while also triggering a 7-year period of escalating inflation and interest rates (which culminated with another ‘blackmail-America/withhold oil’ event in 1979/1980).
It was later revealed that on August 23, 1973 – in the lead-up to that war – Saudi King Faisal had met with Anwar Sadat of Egypt and negotiated a pact whereby they would use the ‘oil weapon’ as part of the attack against Israel and to blackmail the West against helping Israel.
The unforeseen consequence, however, was that the escalating price of oil – and extortionist tactics of OPEC – fueled the rise of many other nations as primary oil producers and exporters. In the end, OPEC – with Saudi Arabiaspearheading the effort – had choreographed their own demise – a process that will reach a cyclic crossroads in 2012/2013.
Now, as this second ‘40-Year Period of Testing” nears its culmination – and in response to the oil price spikes of recent years – a new dagger is being driven into the heart of OPEC, as Israel is joining the list of non-OPEC nations on the brink of energy-independence…
And, this also coincides with US Dollar cycles that mature in 2013. Coincidence? I doubt it!
The Dollar was backed by Gold until 1933. It then entered a precarious 40-Year Period of Testing that reached fruition in 1971–1973. In those waning years (of the preceding, 40-Year Cycle), the Gold window was slammed shut and Silver backing was also removed.
A new cycle began in 1973 and the Dollar has been backed since then – in a ’quasi-’ or de facto mode – by oil. This latest 40-Year Period of Testing – and 2 cycles of 40 Years since 1933 – reaches fruition in 2013.”
Dramatic Middle East shift should begin in 2011!