Nasdaq 100 Sell Signal

Stocks Nearing Dangerous Period (Jan. 26th— );
Bounce into January 23rd Should Trigger New Decline…

01/17/15 Weekly Re-Lay: “Stock Indices…could produce a high as early as Jan. 22nd/23rd.  From its Oct. 8th high, the Nasdaq 100 has an 18–19 trading-day high-high-high-high Cycle Progression that next comes into play on January 23rd (+ or – 1 trading day) – the ideal time for another lower peak.

In the ideal scenario, the Indices would see a volatile week – working their way back up to (and possibly spiking above) their Jan. 8th/9th highs, without turning their daily trends back up.  There are several additional factors – that would unfold on a daily basis – that could play into this scenario, including the daily 21 MARC, daily LHRs and the month-opening range.

17,067–17,080/DJIA remains the most important range of support, which is also the range that must be broken in order to provide the next level of confirmation to a developing top.  The S+P & Nasdaq have/had similar levels – tested this past week.  The S+P had its weekly 21 Low AMAC & 21 High MARC – at 1968.75–1976.25/ESH (it bottomed at 1970.25/ESH).

Meanwhile, the NQ-100 had the tightest range of support – at 4041–4056/NQH.  Not only did that represent the weekly 21 Low AMAC & 21 High MARC, it also represents the weekly 21 Low MARC for the next three weeks (4042, 4041 & 4042/NQH).  It bottomed at4041/NQH.

That level has increased in significance exponentially – now that the latest low, the intra-month low, and the intra-year low are all at 4041/NQH.  So, from a wave, intra-month trend and intra-year trend perspective, the Nasdaq needs to drop below (and then give a weekly close below) 4041/NQH to turn these indicators negative.

And, for the next three weeks, the Nasdaq 100 needs to drop below 4041/NQH to turn the weekly 21 MAC down.  From a timing basis, the Indices are fulfilling the most important projection for intermediate cycles.  They spiked down into January 16th – perpetuating a ~30-degree & ~90-degree that projects future (increased) significance to mid-April 2015, the primary cycle objective for the first half of 2015.

It is also the time when the 40-Year Cycle of War & Peace enters a pivotal transition period (linked to events like the culmination of Vietnam 40 years ago – in April 1975 – and dating all the way back to when British troops left America after the War of 1812, in April 1815, and ultimately to the ‘shot heard round the world’ that initiated the Revolutionary War… in April 1775).

If the Indices set another low – following another significant drop – in mid-February, that would add/perpetuate a corroborating ~60-degree cycle that ALSO comes back into play in mid-April 2015.  (It would not be surprising if that is the time – in mid-Feb. – when the Indices are reversing their weekly trends to down.)”  [See Weekly Re-Lay publications for complete analysis, specific trigger points and related trading strategies.]

17-Year Cycle – Stocks 2014–2016 II
17-Year Cycle – Stocks 2014–2016 III