OPEC Confirming Energy Analysis

OPEC Confirming Energy Analysis;
Oil Advance into Jan. ’18 On Track!
Dec. ’17 Could Time Initial Peak.


10/28/17 Weekly Re-Lay:


Crude Oil, Unleaded Gas & Heating Oil re-energized their advances, fulfilling expectations for the current rallies to extend into late-month.

Unleaded Gas & Heating Oil have moved progressively higher since bottoming in sync with an 8-week low-low-low Cycle Progression – that was expected to spur an 8-week rally into early-Dec.  However, Friday’s action added several key factors to the overall bullish argument for substantial advances to take hold in 3Q/4Q 2017:

Brent Crude exceeded $60/bbl for the first time in ~2 years.  While this is more anecdotal & psychological – it is a key point for global oil traders and should not be underestimated.

Dec. Heating Oil & Unleaded Gas hit their highest levels since 3Q 2015 – a period of over two years.

Heating Oil & Unleaded Gas fulfilled Intra-Year V Reversals higher – closing above their Jan. ’17 highs.  That also means they turned the intra-year trends up – a signal that should underpin prices into late-year.

And, finally validating all these technical & cyclical factors – that began to turn bullish in July 2017 – talk of OPEC extending production cuts at their next meeting in late-Nov. began to circulate through the markets.

As is so often the case, the fundamental factors kick in after a large chunk of the move is already complete.  So, in theory, the fundamentals are never/rarely wrong, but they are often ‘very late to the party’.

On a 1 – 2 year basis, one other factor could corroborate this potential for rallies into Dec. 2017.  Crude has a 50-week high (Feb. 2015)–low (Jan. 2016)–high (Jan 2017)–high (mid-Dec. 2017) Cycle Sequence coming into play at that time and projecting the next significant peak.

On a near-term basis, Crude has the potential to extend a ~30-degree low-high-(high) Cycle Progression – and a ~90-degree high-high cycle – if it sets a 1 – 2 week peak on Oct. 30 – 31.

That would allow time for some consolidation and then an additional spike high on Nov. 8 – 13 – the next phase of Crude’s 33 – 37 day low-low-low-low-(high?) Cycle Progression.”


The latest OPEC communique validates the overall outlook for oil prices to advance in 3Q & 4Q 2017 with an ultimate objective being a Jan. 2018 peak.  The Energy complex is reinforcing mid-year buy signals in Unleaded Gas & Heating Oil & Crude Oil analysis projecting an intervening surge from early-Oct. into Nov. 8 – 13 as part of larger, overall advance into early-Dec…. and then ultimately into Jan. 2018.

See Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track for additional analysis and/or trading strategies.