Stock Bull Market Peaking: Greek Tragedy & China Collapse
06/17/15 Weekly Re-Lay Alert: “Before it began, the first half of 2015 had all the earmarks of a textbook transition period with multi-year cycles – in diverse markets & market complexes – topping & bottoming at different stages along the way.
Two of the most noteworthy were Stock Indices – with multi-decade cycles culminating in late-2014 (and potentially-corroborating intermediate cycles peaking between then and 2Q 2015) – and Precious Metals, with multi-year cycles bottoming in mid-2015.
That ushered in a 6–12 month period, when a great deal of posturing & positioning was/is likely – as markets transition (battle) from bear to bull… or vice-versa. That was one of many reasons why 2015 was projected to look similar to mid-2000–mid-2001 in Stock Indices – with a lot of swing trading but very few convincing or long-lasting trends during that time.
That scenario has been validated by many Indices, including the NYSE (currently trading below its July ’14, Sept. ’14, Nov.’14 & Dec. 14, Feb., Mar., Apr. & May 2015 highs), the DJ Industrials (trading below its Dec. ’14 & Feb.–May ’15 highs), DJ Utilities (traded progressively lower since late-Jan. 2015), DJ Composite (traded progressively lower since late-Dec. 2014) and the DJ Transports (traded progressively lower since late-Nov. 2014).
Meanwhile, diverse commodities have been corroborating the overall analysis and setting a series of progressive bottoms (i.e. Copper in Feb. ’15, Crude in Jan. & Mar. ’15, Grains in May/June ’15, etc.) as this projected transition – from paper assets to hard assets and from 3–5 year deflation back into the prevailing 10–15 year inflationary cycle.
As would be expected, this period has seen a lot of vacillation – as various markets keep retesting extremes before confirming reversals – which has resulted in fewer trading opportunities due to reward/ risk ratios and lack of follow-through in either direction. However, that is expected to soon change…
The second half of 2015 is when trends are expected to last a little longer and cover more ground as lingering bulls or bears (those still married to the trends of 2011–2014/2015) begin to capitulate and new bears or bulls gain the upper hand. [See 17-Year Cycle Remains Firmly Intact (4/08/15) for one example.]
While events in Greece capture immediate attention, there are bigger issues that could take center stage once Greece’s fate is ascertained (good or bad, default or bailout, remain in Euro or Grexit). As this time approaches, it is important to review where each market stands…”
[See 6/17/15 Alert for details on a new developing sell signal in Stock Indices, the potential for MAJOR bottoms in Corn, Wheat, Soybeans & Natural Gas and the precise timing for projected multi-year lows in Gold & Silver.]