Stock-Flation IV

Bears Beget Bears…

August ‘15 = Russian Cycles Escalate

August 2015 –  The month of August ushers in the culmination of the ‘middle third’ of 2015 – when Stock Capitulation has been forecast – and when diverse cycles related to Russia (Bears Beget Bears) enter an accelerated phase.  In 1999, I described ‘The August Factor’ and how it related to the coincidence of these two ‘Bears’ – when the Stock Market Bear & the Russian Bear often make it clear they are both out of hibernation.

That reinforces recent analysis in the leading DJTA (projecting an overall decline into late-August and down to 7600–7700) and is corroborated by diverse analysis just published in the August 2015 INSIIDE Track. This Report highlights some of those expectations, including projections for another dive in the Russian Ruble and for Stock Indices to turn down on August 3–7th and enter their most dangerous period.

It also ties together a unique ongoing correlation between three oil-centric markets that remain ‘Bearish’ – applying pressure on global equity markets – but which are entering the final months of their overall negative cycles.  August 2015 should provide powerful corroboration & clarification to this analysis…

The Bear is Stirring…

One of the more riveting aspects of that cycle combo involves #3 – the 17-Year Cycle of Financial Crises… usually spurred by related geopolitical crises.  The last phase of that cycle – occurring in 1998 – involved the‘Russian Ruble Crisis’ coming on the heels of the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis

So, in 1998, the Ruble was plummeting and breaking to ‘dangerous’ new lows.

            In 2015 – exactly 17 years later – the Ruble is plummeting and nearing ‘dangerous’ new lows.

And, apparently, the fact that Russia decided to shift her currency reserves and more heavily weight holdings in Gold & the Euro in 2014 (what perfect timing) – moving away from the US Dollar – has exacerbated Putin’s already tenuous financial & economic situation.

Now, remind me… What was one of the crises that occurred in 1980–1981, 17 years before 1997/1998? 

            Oh yeah… the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan.

And 17 years before the Soviets invaded Afghanistan, they made the decision that led to the Cuban Missile Crisis.

And 17 years before that, the end of World War II ushered in the Cold War between the US/West & USSR.

Could there really be something to that 17-Year Cycle?!

Watch early-Aug. for next downturn.  The significance of this is what it means for the rest of 3Q 2015… and the rest of 2015.  Several Indices are already focused on Aug. 3–7th for a rebound peak.  This DJIA weekly trend pattern is beginning to corroborate that… although shorter-term analysis will be used to hone that outlook…

Global Indices

China’s Shanghai Composite – after plummeting 30+% – also bottomed along with near-term cycles in early-July.

It rebounded enough to test its previous low (support turned into resistance – at ~4100) and is attempting to enter a new decline.  It is expected to see further selling and to ultimately test and at least spike below3100.

The DAX & European Indices dropped into July 8th and bottomed 2 days early (see last month’s analysis) and then bounced into mid-July – topping ~90 degrees from its April 13–17th peak. Based on its daily trend pattern, the DAX could enter a new decline as soon as August 3–7th.”

 

‘Capitulation Phase’ Accelerating!  August 2015 = Danger Month

DJTA Projects Drop into late-August & down to ~7600.

China’s Shanghai Composite Targets Drop Below ~3100.

FREE copy of INSIIDE Track: 40-Year Cycle – Stock-flation IV Report.