Stocks Confirm Nov. Cycle Low
11/23/16 Weekly Re-Lay Alert:
“Stock Indices are in the midst of a pivotal period with escalating & accelerating swings reinforcing expectations for an imminent shift. As with cycles, natural events, birth pains, human emotions & many other phenomenon – the closer one gets to a turning point or culmination, the more intense & accelerated the gyrations become.
The Indices accelerated daily & intermediate cycles in early-November, throwing a curveball at near-term expectations by reaching 2–4 month downside targets & bottoming a couple weeks earlier than the ideal scenario. In doing so, stocks reinforced much of the bigger-picture scenario…
From a broad-stroke perspective, 2015–2016 was expected to possess similarities to 2000–2001 – during which the DJIA effectively traded sideways while undergoing an ~18-month succession of sharp 1–3 month declines followed by strong 1–2 month rallies without sustaining a defined trend in either direction.
That pattern was expected to last through most of 2016 until longer-term cycles began to turn bearish in late-2016. The expected similarities were a result of wave structure (and the pattern of wave alternation), monthly trend patterns and the setup of the monthly 21 MARC – with cycles identifying an over-arching transition period of larger degree.
In the midst of that ~2-year period, specific longer-term cycles (most notably, the 17-Year Cycle) were expected to trigger an initial ~20% decline in May–August 2015… and then a more significant decline beginning in late-2016(potentially lasting into 2018). The first expectation was fulfilled – in most global & domestic Indices and in dozens of bellwether stocks – while the second one is now at hand.
The recent acceleration – of short & intermediate cycles – adds another warning sign that a larger-degree shift is on the horizon.
Throughout that ~2-year period, the 31–32 Week Cycle was projected to time important multi-month peaks and ensuing ‘Danger Periods’ – in mid-2015, late-2015/early-2016 and again in Aug.–Nov. 2016. Each of those has been fulfilled – projecting focus to the next phase in March/April 2017.
Each of those has also transpired in a more accelerated fashion with the latest two – culminating in June & November 2016 – experiencing the majority of their declines in a 1 or 2 day period on the heels of surprising geopolitical news. The June ’16 decline was faster than the Dec./Jan. ’16 drop… which was faster than the May–August 2015 decline. And the Nov. ’16 drop outdid the June ’16 one.
Here again, this acceleration – a type of crescendo – is a harbinger of a significant shift on the horizon.
At the opposite extreme, a ~5-month cycle timed multi-month lows in August 2015, Jan. & June 2016 and was projected to time another in Nov. 2016. [Those opposing cycles are another reason why November was set to be a volatile month.]
The corresponding 19–20 Week Cycle pinpointed late-Nov. as the ideal time for another multi-month bottom. Equities fulfilled the monthly cycle – setting what could be a multi-month low in Nov. 2016 – but fell short of fulfilling the corresponding 19–20 Week Cycle by about 2 weeks…
That potential was introduced by the acceleration signals of Nov. 4th & 7th and the coinciding weekly trend signals triggered on Nov. 4th (that projected an imminent & violent spike low followed by a 1–3 week rally). It was initially validated when the Indices spiked to November’s intra-month extreme downside price targets – on Nov. 9th… fulfilling the downside price objectives for the entire multi-month decline.
At that point, the Indices spiked right to their monthly HLS levels & also matched the magnitude of their preceding (2Q 2016) declines… leaving little remaining downside price potential. That also fulfilled expectations for a culminating 1–2 week drop that would likely consume 70–80% of the overall move.
The fulfillment of all those objectives ushered in a rally of a higher degree – surging further & faster than anticipated and confirming that a bottom had been set, eliminating the potential for a final 1–2 week drop.”
Stock Indices surge after fulfilling downside price targets (for projected Aug.–Nov. ‘16 decline). 17-Year Cyclebegins to turn negative in Jan.–Mar. 2017 and could trigger larger-degree decline. See Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track for additional details.