Stocks Fulfill Downside; Hold Support

Stocks Fulfill Downside; Hold Support.
Nov. ’16 Cycle Low Still Expected.
Downside Wave Objectives Met.

11/12/16 Weekly Re-Lay:

“Stock Indices are a ‘tale of two realities’ with one reality represented by the DJIA that surged to new highs – a FAR more violent rally than I anticipated.  The alternate reality can be seen in the NYSE & NASDAQ 100 – which did produce violent spike lows and then rebounded to normal resistance levels.  Which is the real reality?…

In order to assess where stocks are going, it is important to review where they have just been.  As explained on Nov. 5th, the Indices were poised for a potentially violent low & rebound.  But, first they had to attain downside objectives…

“In the coming week, it would take intra-week drops below 17,471/DJIA & 2033.2/ESZ to do so… coincide with the weekly HLS in the DJIA (17,491) and the monthly HLS in the S+P (2032.75/ESZ).”    [11/05/16 Weekly Re-Lay]

Those downside objectives aligned with wave equivalence targets – where the current drop would match the magnitude of the June decline (at ~17,500/YMZ & ~2040.0/ESZ).  The Nasdaq 100 had its monthly HLS (intra-month extreme downside target for November) at 4616/NQZ and would match its June decline at 4564/NQZ.

The S+P dropped to 2028.5/ESZ & the NQ-100 to 4558/NQZ (as DJI futures hit 17,418/ YMZ), setting those ‘violent lows’… 1–2 days earlier than the ideal date, confirming that cycles were accelerating (as warned on Nov. 7th).

Those Indices then surged with the DJIA breaking out higher, the ESZ testing & holding its highs and the Nasdaq 100 rallying right to the convergence of its monthly resistance & weekly LHR – at 4874–4879/NQZ, topping at 4879/NQZ and then plummeting 200 points in less than a day.

That leaves the immediate outlook in question…The volatile action of this past week reinforces the outlook for a 15–18 month topping process (from the May ’15 peaks in many Indices) that was projected to mimic 2000–2001 – when every strong rally was quickly met with a sharp decline and every sharp decline was met with a strong rally… keeping the DJIA in limbo for ~1.5 years.  This process is now accelerating, reinforcing that a culmination is imminent…

Recent action could be a final, last-gasp attempt at resurrecting the 2009–2014 bull market – perfectly coinciding with when Gold & Silver were/are expected to provide a final exhaustive sell-off and culminate their 4–5 month correction from the mid-2016 cycle highs.  It reinforces the cyclically-decisive nature of Nov./Dec. 2016

Stock Indices extended their losses into Nov. 9th – spiking down to intra-month extreme downside objectives while matching the magnitudes of the previous intermediate decline (into late-June 2016).

The Nov. 9th low perpetuated a 15-day high (Oct. 10)–high (Oct. 25)–low (Nov. 9thCycle Progression… the latest phase of an overriding 14–18 day high (Aug. 23)–high (Sept. 8)–high (Sept. 22)–high (Oct. 10)–high (Oct. 25)–low (Nov. 9thCycle Progression… the equivalent of the 11–12 trading day cycle, previously discussed.”


Stock Indices attacked multiple (2–4 month & 2–4 week) downside objectives with Nov. 9th spike low fulfilling almost all of the downside price potential for this latest Danger Period.  This initially validates ongoing analysis for another multi-month low in Nov. 2016 – the latest in a 5-month series that includes the August 2015, Jan. 2016 & June 2016 lows.  The next phase of this Cycle Progression – in April 2017 – holds added synergy & significance (as well as danger).  See Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track for additional details.