Stocks Fulfilling Nov. ’16 Cycle Low
11/16/16 Weekly Re-Lay Alert:
“Stock Indices have swung so widely – resulting in a few divergent indicators – that it is a critical time to step back, review and/or reassess the diverse outlooks (from multi-year down to multi-day) and refocus… as the markets enter a time frame that has drawn acute attention for the past two years.
Since some of these signals are producing conflicting – or at least seemingly conflicting – conclusions, it is important to first review each factor (individual cycle) before bringing them back together. For the sake of this discussion, I will only touch on the longer-term analysis briefly… and then elaborate on it in the December 2016 INSIIDE Track.
1 – From a very long-term perspective, late-2014–early-2015 was the culmination of a 40-Year Cycle of inflationary stock (and bond) advances and was expected to usher in a drawn-out topping process.
2 – On a slightly smaller scale, a 17-Year Cycle projected an initial, sharp correction (~20%) in mid-2015, with late-April–late-Sept. ‘15 pegged as the precise time for that sell-off.
The next phase of that 17-Year Cycle portends a sharper decline in 2017 – linked to the Nasdaq 100 collapse of 2000 (and many other factors).
3 – The midpoint – or half-cycle – of that 17-Year Cycle pinpoints 2017 as a precarious period, the next phase of an ~8.5 year crash (March–May 2000 drop of 40+%)–crash (Sept.–Nov. 2008 drop of 40+%)–crash?? March–May 2017 could be a vulnerable period and coincides with cycles in other arenas like…
4 – EU/Euro Crisis Cycles expected to escalate in 2016/2017 – with mid-2017 timing important cycle lows in the STOXX 600 Index as well as the potential for a Dollar peak/Euro low (that could be the crescendo of another sharp move).
5 – ‘Last Man Standing’ discussion (in early-2015) on European Indices – in particular the German DAX – that were expected to signal the culmination of the global equity bull market… and likely signal the breakdown into a global equity bear market.
As described in recent INSIIDE Tracks, the monthly 21 MARC pinpointed Oct. ’16–Jan. ’17 as a vulnerable period when the corresponding monthly 21 MAC would begin to roll over to the downside.
On an intermediate basis, a 19–20 week cycle was projected to time an intervening bottom in the DAX – as early as Nov. 7th – ‘IF a sharp sell-off is seen in the first half of November’.
6 – On a 1–2 year basis, Stock Indices were projected to go through a lengthy, ~15–18 month topping process – similar to the DJIA in 2000–2001 – before entering a bear market in late-2016.
7 – On a 3–6 month basis, Stock Indices were projected to perpetuate a ~5-month low (Aug. ’15)–low (Jan. ’16)–low (June ’16)–low (Nov. ’16) Cycle Progression. Based on the corresponding weekly cycle, this should stretch a low into late-Nov.
8 – On a 2–4 month basis, the 32–33 Week & 66-Week Cycle projected a top for early-August, followed by a 1–2 month and an overlapping, 2–4 month drop.
9 – On a 1–2 month basis, an intervening cycle high on Oct. 3–7th projected an ensuing 3–6 week decline that was projected to hold similarities to July/ August 2015. That scenario involved the DJIA setting a secondary high two months after its mid-May 2015 peak and then undergoing a sharp, 4–5 week decline in which 90% of the price drop occurred.
10 – Also, on a 1–2 month basis, Stock Indices perpetuated a ~7-week low-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression – on Oct. 3–7th – that next came into play on Nov. 21–25, 2016.
11 – On a 2–4 week basis, a secondary cycle high – Oct. 25/26th – projected an ensuing 2–3 week drop.
12 – On a 1–2 week basis, the Nov. 4th close (weekly trend signals) & intra-week action (test & hold of weekly HLS) projected an imminent – potentially violent – low and rebound. The action of Nov. 7th showed signs of accelerating the short-term cycles & increasing that imminence.
13 – The Nov. 9th spike to monthly HLS levels reached the extreme intra-month downside targets and ushered in what should be a 1–3 week bounce (based on the weekly trend pattern).
14 – The Nov. 9th spike to downside wave targets (where the current decline equaled the magnitude of the previous, May–June 2016 declines) reached downside targets on another basis and corroborated the potential for a multi-week low.
15 – Another negative period was expected in the 2-week period surrounding Nov. 23rd. That dovetails with the ~5-month cycle but does not pinpoint exactly when that ~2-week period begins & when it ends… just that it overlaps Nov. 23rd.
#1–#6 remain intact and have not changed.
#7–#9 have been 80–90% fulfilled.
#10–#15 are still unfolding, so the jury is out.
One similarity immediately jumps out, from #5–#15 – the inclusion of November 2016 as a critical, culminating period. While that ‘culmination’ takes on different forms, there was no doubt that Nov. ’16 was poised to be a volatile time – when so many cycles collided. That remains the case.
The irony – and the reason for increased focus – is that it timed the completion of many short-to-intermediate cycles but the transition of some longer-term ones. While that is not unusual, it does make for some wild action in the markets.
There are also distinctions among these cycles – that are becoming clearer as November unfolds… [reserved for subscribers only]…”
Stock Indices fulfilling Nov. 2016 cycle low – the latest in a 5-month series that includes the August 2015, Jan. 2016 & June 2016 lows. Overlapping, longer-term cycles pinpoint early-2017 as precarious period. The next phase of this 5-month (and an overriding 10-month) Cycle Progression – in April 2017 – holds added danger. See Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track for additional details.