Stocks Marking Time Before Trouble Emerges

Stocks Marking Time Before Trouble Emerges;
Mid-Dec. ’15 Ushers in Next Bearish Phase…
Sell Signals Intact.

11/18/15 Weekly Re-Lay Alert: Stock Indices continue their volatile ways, spiking lower into mid-month and then rebounding sharply after the DJIA & ESZ failed to turn their daily trends down. They dropped into the 3rd day since generating 2 Close Reversal sell signals on Nov. 11th – a signal that typically triggers a 2-3 day follow-through before needing a reinforcing signal. 

…the failure of these Indices to break near-term support is ushering in the potential for cycles to invert and create a secondary high next week (instead of a low).  That would also perpetuate a 10-11 trading day high-high-high-(high?) Cycle Progression that comes into play on Nov. 23/24th (~90 degrees from the Aug. 24th spike low).

The DJIA & the NQZ also dropped right to their daily 21 High MARCs on Monday – a key level of 1–2 week support – and immediately reversed higher.  Since those channels remain positive, the potential for a few more days of rebounding exists.

More than anything, this action reinforces several intra-year & intermediate factors that remain in place:

1 – Bearish cycles culminated in late-Aug. & late-Sept., after which a 1–2 month rebound was likely.

2 – A strong advance in 4Q 2015 – first discussed in Nov. 2014 as part of the overall ‘roadmap’ for 2015-2016 – remains the primary focus for this period (although the majority or all of that advance could already be behind us)… at least until…

3 – The next bearish phase is expected to begin to take hold after mid-Dec. 2015, partially linked to the 32–33 Week Cycle as well as other factors.

Of those Indices that did turn their daily trends down, most have neutralized those trends – pinpointing the next 1–2 days as being decisive.

3–6 month & 6–12 month traders/investors should have begun re-entering the short side of the Indices (except NQZ) on Oct. 29/30th –Nov. 6th and …”  TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK.