Swiss Move Portends EU Trouble
1/15/15 Weekly Re-Lay Alert: “Today’s Swiss Bank announcement – removing the Swiss Franc peg to the Euro – is the latest fulfillment AND confirmation of what has been forecast for 2015.
The 2015 Euro Crisis has been forming for several years and was projected to accelerate in January 2015… European Unity Cycles that begin a new phase in 2011… and are expected to reach fruition in 2018/2019… the Euro was projected to set a MAJOR top in April/May 2011 – at ~1.5000/EC – and coincide with the forecast for a MAJOR, multi-year peak in Gold in 2011. The Euro was projected to subsequently enter a precipitous decline in the ensuing years. That decline was projected to reach at least 1.1000/EC.
How did the Euro fare?
It topped in early-May 2011 – at 1.4925/EC – and has never even come close to that peak since. Hmmm.
Fast forward to May 2014, when a secondary peak was projected in line with multiple cycles – at ~1.4000/EC – and analysis for a drop to ~1.1000/EC or below was reiterated…
Undoing Before Unity
So, what do all these geopolitical and unification cycles have to do with the markets and with what is expected in 2014–2016?
That has to do with what usually precedes uni-fication. It is very rare that humans just voluntarily unite with one another when no threat or vulnerability is perceived. When life is good and things are going smooth, we tend to be more independent Unification usually means compromise, so who dashes right for that choice.
If 2017/2018 is going to be the culmination of one momentous 70-Year Cycle – and 2018–2021 is going to be the onset of another – it means the next few years could be tumultuous.
And one of those potentially-precarious areas is still expected to be Europe. As stated many times before, I believe the Euro has another crisis and another sharp drop in the coming years… before real unity becomes plausible. And this could have far-reaching implications – for Gold, global equities, the Dollar, etc…
To recap, the Euro was projected to set a multi-year top on May 5–9, 2014 – near 1.4000/EC (it had to spike above 1.3966/EC with resistance at ~1.4000/ EC and the lower the peak the better and weaker it would be) and then plummet to 1.1000/EC or below in/by late-2015.
How did the Euro fare?
It topped on May 8, 2014 – at 1.3993/ECM – and has plummeted ever since. Hmmm.
Oh, yeah. The British Pound was forecast to set a final peak two months later – in July 2014 – before it embarked on a sharp decline. It peaked at 1.7184/BPU on July 15, 2014. Hmmm.
Could these crazy cycles actually be anticipating what is going on in Europe?…
2018–2021 is expected to see many (initial) results or consequences of this ‘Shift’ reach fruition (including ‘Cycles of Unification’ in both the Middle East & Europe; perhaps there will be some overlap like a S. European/N. African/Middle East alliance… or it could be two very distinct and/or competing unions). In either case, 2018–2021 is like the mirror or book-end to 2011–2014.
And 2015–2017 is when this ‘Shift’ has been/ is expected to really take hold… to accelerate forward… to leave little doubt that a Major transition is underway…
Europe’s Other Shoe
A similar scenario has been unfolding in Europe for the past few years. In May 2011 – and the ensuing months – INSIIDE Track described why the Euro had major resistance at ~1.5000/EC and why it should drop to at least ~1.1000/EC before it would have any realistic potential for embarking on a new impulse wave higher.
An expected scenario was described then – and reiterated many times, including in April & May 2014 – in which the Euro would suffer a sharp decline and appear to be on the verge of collapse… before it would have any real chance of bottoming (in my opinion). A REAL crisis in Europe was projected as part of this ‘Shift’.
In May 2014, INSIIDE Track described why the Euro had multi-year resistance at ~1.4000/EC and why it should peak in early-May 2014 and then drop to at least ~1.1000/EC – stretching that decline into late-2015 – before it would have any realistic potential for bottoming.
The Euro peaked at 1.3989/ECH on May 8, 2014 and has since plummeted below 1.2000/EC. All of a sudden, 1.1000/EC doesn’t look so unattainable. In fact, at the rate things are going, 1.1000/EC might only be a stopping point on the way to even lower prices.
And suddenly, the fundamentals are kicking back in and confirming this analysis (they usually lag the technicals AND price action)…
For several years, I have surmised that Europe still had to go through more pain before there was any realistic chance of progress (an often hard-to-define term). That conclusion was based partially on human nature – and a study of history – and partially on the charts, which projected a Euro drop to 1.1000/EC or below…
I have described for several years – and continue to believe – that a crisis in Europe needs to take place as the next ‘domino’ to fall and reinforce expectations for 2011–2018 and beyond…
“2015 could not have started with a better week of validating factors (or potential factors), if I had scripted it myself. Similar to how/why 2016 is expected to be ‘The Golden Year’…when repeated fears of EU exits spur global equity investors to head for the exits.
The year began with fears of the anti-bailout/anti-austerity Syriza Party taking control in Greece – on Jan. 25th. At the same time, fears surrounding the UK’s May 2015 election (and whether or not a referendum on Britain’s EU membership would be pushed out to 2017… Hmmmm) are spurring another form of EU exit rumblings…
Today’s move by the Swiss Bank – without notifying anyone at the IMF (Horrors! They should have told them so that someone could have capitalized on it, then leaked it and also had time to precede it with a nice, tidy ‘spin cycle’) – was their version of ‘exiting’ the current Euro process.
You can spin it however you like… but IT’S ALL ABOUT PERCEPTION. The Swiss might be neutral, but they’re not nuts. And, we know they are savvy bankers – so you do the math. They are ‘getting out’ (figuratively speaking) while the getting’s good…
…Before Greece could exit and before the UK could ‘exit’ it. And before additional problems come out of hiding across Europe. Why wait around for the inevitable when the handwriting is on the wall???
The Euro has entered a DANGEROUS period….”
Swiss Move Anticipates Increasing Instability in EU. Could Greece or the UK leave… voluntarily or involuntarily? British Pound Fulfills July 2014 Cycle Peak; Enters New Bearish Cycle. UK election centers around future EU-exit referendum. 2015–2018 = EU Breakdown Cycle!