XAU (Gold Stocks) Reach Extreme Support!

XAU (Gold Stocks) Reach Extreme Support!
Weekly HLS Test Portends Imminent Low…
Dec. 8 – 15 = Greatest Synergy of Cycles.


12/09/17 Weekly Re-Lay:


“Gold & Silver dropped further as the XAU fulfilled 1 – 3 month & 6 – 12 month downside objectives.  A low could be seen by Dec. 15

Gold & Silver have continued to decline after rebounding into Nov. 17 & setting intermediate highs while perpetuating a 21-day low-low-(high) Cycle Progression.  At that time, Gold had a prime opportunity to re-enter its weekly uptrend & close above its weekly 21 MAC.  It failed to achieve that, being stopped dead in its tracks at resistance…

Gold was on track to pull back – in sync with that daily cycle high and analysis for Gold stocks to still drop to new lows – and it did so in the week that followed.

Gold then mounted another 3 – 5 day rally & spiked to new rebound highs, but could not close above the previous highs or that resistance.

(This is one reason the 11/21 Alert introduced the ‘threat’ of a drop below their Oct. lows & the 11/25 Weekly Re-Lay warned bullish traders to view the metals with ‘healthy skepticism’ since they were mired in no-man’s-land – repeatedly failing to confirm what the weekly trends were projecting.)

It was only after that second rally, peaking on Nov. 27, that metals began to turn more negative – with Gold triggering an outside-week/2 Close Reversal lower on Nov. 27 – Dec. 1 as Silver turned its weekly trend down while dropping to new multi-month lows.  That was expected to spur further downside during this past week.

Gold soon followed suit (dropping below its Oct. low) – negating the preferred wave structure that had been in force.  It confirmed that by turning its weekly trend down on the Dec. 8 close.  On an intermediate basis, that forces a reassessment of the 2 – 3 month outlook.

In the case of both Gold & Silver, they showed that another sequential low (following those in late-2015, late-2016 & mid-2017) is NOT yet intact.  Up until Dec. 1 & 8, the weekly trends had been strongly favoring a rally to new 2 – 3 month highs.  That is no longer the case.

That negates the primary outlook for the second half of 2017 & delays the onset of an expected new advance.  It also turns focus to the second most likely time for a successive low – in the first half of Dec.  A low by/in mid-Dec. would come at roughly the same time of year that Gold bottomed in 2015 & 2016.

A couple indicators are corroborating that potential.  One is/are the weekly trend patterns, which often witness a multi-week bounce shortly after reversing down.  A second is the weekly HLS.  Silver hit & held this level on Dec. 1 and Gold did the same on Dec. 8.  Both of those tests project an ensuing 1 – 2 month low in the following weeks.

As for the bigger picture outlook, Gold & Silver remain in their monthly uptrends.  At least in Gold, the mid-2017 low is still expected to hold and yield a new rally above the Sept. highs.  The timing for that advance, however, is much more uncertain in light of the weekly trend reversal.

The XAU fulfilled its daily trend pattern by spiking to new lows and has just fulfilled its 2 – 3 month outlook.  It has spiked below its weekly 21 Low MARC (76.77/XAU) – maintaining its declining weekly 21 MAC – and did spike down to its weekly HLS at 75.77/XAU.

That action – reaching its intra-week extreme downside target – increases the likelihood for a low in the coming week(s).  A multi-month low is still likely in Dec. 2017 – the latest phase of an 11 – 12 month low-low-low Cycle Progression.  By spiking below its early-July low, the XAU has also fulfilled the potential for an overall decline from its early-Feb. intra-year peak.

A low on Dec. 4 – 15 would create a 21 – 22 week high-low-(low) Cycle Progression originating from the early-Feb. intra-year peak.”


XAU fulfills projected decline into Dec. 4 – 8 & tests (AND holds) weekly HLS at 75.77/XAU.  By reaching that extreme downside target, the XAU increases the likelihood for an imminent bottom (potentially a 1 – 2 month low).  Daily, weekly & monthly cycles converge on Dec. 8 – 15, reinforcing analysis for a critical bottom.  Gold & Silver remain in positive wave structures, but have added an additional spike low that was unexpected.  They are on track for a new multi-month bottom before mid-Dec.


See Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track for additional analysis and/or trading strategies.