Bitcoin Surging From 3 – 6 Month Support;
Rally Above 7,800 Still Likely…
Watch Gold Action in Aug./Sept. 2018.
07/18/18 Weekly Re-Lay Alert – Currency Wars Shifting:
“The month of July has shown renewed signs of life in the ongoing currency battles as the Dollar shows signs of peaking, Gold plummets to new 12-month lows and cryptocurrency begin to show signs of turning back up after bottoming in line with an uncanny weekly cycle.
The Dollar and Gold are addressed later in this Alert, but a quick update on Bitcoin is warranted first. On July 13, The Bridge discussed the convergence of decisive time and price objectives that had been met in Bitcoin – on the downside – fulfilling what had been published since late-2017…
Bitcoin dropped right to its Nov. 2017 low (~5,850) – the ultimate target for its bursting bubble – retracing over 70% of its 2017 gains. It tested and held that support during the latest phase of an ~8-week cycle (recent phases were mostly 8.5 weeks in duration) that was highlighted last year and again earlier this year. The diagrams in the first column illustrate this cycle.
The first thing Bitcoin needed to do, in order to confirm that bottom, was to close above 6,800. It just did that. The next thing would be to rally to ~7,800. It nearly reached 7,600 today, so it is close to fulfilling that second criteria. The third would be for a daily and then weekly close above 7,800.
The timing for that signal is not certain and Bitcoin could create a new trading range – with a floor near 6,800 and a ceiling near 7,800 – and build some new buying pressure as it trades at a higher plateau. As long as support near 6,800 holds, the potential for a breakout above 7,800 would remain firmly intact.
So, it appears as though Bitcoin is coming back to life – having already surged 30% from its late-June cycle low and over 20% from where it was trading on July 13.
And this is coming just as Japan announces the opening of VCTRADE – SBI’s cryptocurrency exchange. Price action should clarify how long it takes for a new advance to convincingly take hold.”
Bitcoin has rallied strongly and is still likely to exceed 7,800 as part of this rebound. The latest rally is coming as Gold plummets, reinforcing the competitive nature of these two ‘anti-Dollar’ alternatives. Gold could wait until August before bottoming, after which Bitcoin could begin to struggle again.
Recent action reinforces the significance of the 5,500 – 5,800 support range that is likely to hold through 3Q 2018. If that is ultimately broken, ~3,200 becomes the next level of support. That was the mid-Sept. low from which the parabolic rise into mid-Dec. emerged. The ~21-Week (144-day) low – low – low Cycle Progression should produce one more important low in late-Nov. 2018. The most negative cycle should not kick in until early-Sept. ’18.
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.