Dec. 15–17th Cycle High Just Days Away!
12/09/15 Weekly Re-Lay Alert: “The Mid-Dec. Transition Period”
“Based on cycles – and some often-prescient timing indicators – the period surrounding mid-Dec. 2015 has been in focus for over a year… with that focus growing in intensity during each quarter of 2015.
This represents the time when MANY commodity cycles could begin to turn positive (even though their precise bottoms could have formed in Nov. or early-Dec.), when Gold & Silver should begin to show early signs of what is expected in the first half of 2016 & when Stock Indices shift into their second bearish cycle of the past year (the first being from late-April–late-Sept. 2015).
On that note…
Stock Indices are setting the stage for a new multi-month decline, expected in the early months of 2016 (but beginning in Dec. ’15).
They are in a decisive & pivotal 2–3 week period that includes the overlap of the 32–33 Week Cycle on Dec. 7–18th (that timed the mid-Sept. ’14 & late-April/ early-May ’15 peaks) and the series of 14–15 week cycles that has governed the SP 500… and which came back into play on Nov. 30–Dec. 11th.
The DJ Transports – which continue to lead the transition into a multi-year bear market – turned their daily trend back down a week ago and ushered in a sharp decline that has taken them below their late-Sept. low and within striking distance of their late-August bottom.
If they decline just another 120 points – below today’s low – they will have extended their bear market to almost 13 months… from their late-Nov. 2014 peak.
The Transports have a 25–27 day low-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression that projects a subsequent (lower) high on Dec. 15–17th. That cycle – which is most commonly a 19 trading-day cycle – has connected the early-June low, early-July low, early-Aug. high, early-Sept. (secondary) low, late-Sept. low, late-Oct. high & late-Nov. high. So, it has been governing the Transports for over 6 months…
Several other Indices (among them, the DJIA & SP 500) remain below their Nov. 2–6th highs – peaks that were set during a previous multi-week cycle high and which triggered new 3–6 month & 6–12 month sell signals that remain in effect.
Many of those Indices spiked higher to begin today – with the DJIA attacking its daily LHR – and quickly reversed lower, beginning to feel the pressure of growing negative factors. They still need daily closes below their early-Dec lows (17,425/DJIA, 2033.0/ESH & 4575/NQH) to turn their intra-month trends down and confirm a multi-week – or much longer – peak.
Even more bearish would be a drop below – and daily closes below – their mid-Nov. lows…
3–6 month & 6–12 month traders/investors should have re-entered the short side of the Indices (except NQZ) on Oct. 29/30–Nov. 6th and should …” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK.
The time has come! Stock Indices are entering the mid-December ‘Transition Period’ – after which they enter very bearish cycles. For over a year, publications like the Oct. 2014 Stock-flation & May 2015 Stock-flation II have explained why mid-Dec. 2015 will usher in a very troubling time for Stock Indices. Traders & investors should have been selling at the early-Nov. highs and should now get ready for the fireworks in 2016! TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK.