Silver Cycles – The ‘Weaker Sister’; Weekly Trend Signal Projects Feb. 20 Silver Peak & Plunge to New Lows.
Silver Cycles – The ‘Weaker Sister’; Weekly Trend Signal Projects Feb. 20 Silver Peak & Plunge to New Lows.
02/20/19 INSIIDE Track: Gold & Silver 2019 – Cycle Crescendo?: “A Collision of Cycles
Gold & Silver have just surged to decisive resistance levels and upside targets – during the convergence of a myriad of weekly & monthly cycles – ushering in a pivotal period. In doing so, Gold is also fulfilling what was described in the Feb. 9, 2019 Weekly Re-Lay Alert…
At the same time, Silver retested its high (16.20/SIH) while twice neutralizing its daily downtrend… this is as high as Silver should surge IF it is a ‘b’ wave rally prior to a ‘c’ wave decline (as is suspected). That would provide a textbook divergent top – with Silver peaking at or below its previous high as Gold sets a new (higher) high.
Silver has just spiked up to 3 of its latest 4 weekly LHR levels (extreme upside target for this week at 16.025 – 16.260/SIH) – in the 2-day period when the daily LHR portends a top (Feb. 19/20) – reinforcing it is at a DECISIVE level.
Similar to Gold, the XAU has accelerated to the upside and is attacking its monthly projected high/resistance at 80.42 – 82.56. That also includes the descending monthly 21 High MAC.
So, all three are fulfilling multi-week, multi-month, multi-quarter & multi-year cycles while surging up to weekly extremes and monthly resistance levels…
The Weaker Sister
It was not until mid-Nov. – the next phase of the 13 – 14 week cycle following Gold’s low in mid-Aug. – that Silver finally completed its downside objectives and signaled a similar bottom. That completed a myriad of cycles (a couple of which are illustrated on page 4) and set the stage for its own ~3-month advance.
Silver surged for the ensuing 7 weeks – into early-January – creating a 7-week low-high-(high) Cycle Progression targeting a future peak for Feb. 19 – 22, 2019. Like Gold, it also peaked at the midpoint of that cycle – in late-Jan. – increasing the synergy of cycles projecting an ensuing high on Feb. 19 – 22.
Breakin’ It Down…
All of that action – in Gold, Silver and the XAU – reinforced expectations for a strong advance into the latest phase of the 55 – 59 week cycle – in mid-Feb. – mid-March ‘19.
However, key divisions of these cycles (as just described in Silver) are arguing for that peak to come now – during the week when both a corresponding 13 – 14 week & 6 – 7 week cycle converge…
A high on Feb. 19 – 26 would perpetuate a 6 – 7 week low-low-low-low-high-(high) AND a 13 – 14 week low-low-low-low-high-(high) Cy
So, Feb. 19 – 22 is the period with the greatest synergy of all these cycle highs!…
Synopsis & Summation
So, Gold & Silver are at make-or-break levels … Silver remains in a weaker position and has been unable to reverse its weekly trend up during this entire advance. So, that could be the leading metal if/when a downturn is signaled. It has spiked up to multiple weekly LHR levels (3 of latest 4 are at 16.025 – 16.260/SIH) – reinforcing that Silver is at an extreme level from which a new decline is likely.
3 – 6 month & 6 – 12 month traders & investors could have entered long Gold positions (futures, cash, ETFs, etc.) at ~1200.0 down to 1186/GC in late-Sept. and be holding 2/3 of these w/avg. open gains of about $14,000/contract (in futures).
The first 1/3 should have been exited in late-Jan. around 1320/GCJ w/avg. gains of about $12,500/contract. Exit/take profits on another 1/3 of these now and use a weekly close below 1305.0/GCJ as the trigger (risk) to exit the remainder of these long positions…
3 – 6 month & 6 – 12 month traders & investors could have entered long positions in Silver (futures, cash, ETFs, etc.) in late-Nov. at ~14.40 and be holding 2/3 of these w/avg. open gains of about $8,000/contract (in futures).
The first 1/3 should have been exited in late-Jan. around 15.90/SIH w/avg. gains of about $7,500/contract. Exit/take profits on another 1/3 of these now and use a weekly close below 15.445/SIH as the trigger (risk) to exit the remainder of these long positions. TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
Another Window!
So, with the Dollar dropping right to multiple levels of 1 – 2 week support – and holding – it has the potential to embark on a final 1 – 3 week rally… If the Dollar fulfills that, and if the Dollar briefly rallies to new ~21-month highs in the next 2 – 3 weeks (enough to unsettle traders who are worried about too strong of a US Dollar)…
Could that open up a small window of opportunity for Gold to see a contrasting sharp sell-off…?”
While all the metals and metals stocks project a multi-month peak at this time (Feb. 19 – 22, 2019), the 2 – 3 month outlook differs. Silver remains the ‘weaker sister’ and – based on its weekly trend pattern – should see a drop back to its Nov. ’18 low. That could/should help pinpoint when the next multi-month low is most likely, as Gold should be bottoming at higher lows while Silver retests (or drops below) its Nov. ’18 lows.
Silver’s daily trend pattern and weekly extremes are creating a textbook setup for a divergent peak now… and subsequent plunge in the coming weeks & months. Multiple factors, including the Dollar outlook, usher in a dangerous period between now and early-March.
How Sharp of a Sell-off is Expected?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.