S+P Midcap 400 Projects Likely Rally to ~2580 into June ‘23; Russell 2K Cycle High Concurs.
05/17/23 Weekly Re-Lay Alert – “Stock Indices are rallying in tandem even though their overall structure remains divergent… On a 3 – 6 month basis, indexes like the NQ-100 are showing resilience while the S+P Midcap 400 (and others) continue to trace out a topping/reversing process with its monthly & weekly 21 MACs. In both cases (two different magnitudes), the IDX had an initial sell-off that reversed the direction of the 21 MAC down as that index was closing below it.
That often leads to an initial low and rebound to retest the 21 MAC (high or low) as it is beginning to build a little downward momentum. In the case of the S+P Midcap 400, it continues to roll over to the downside as the actual index is consolidating after the initial declines. That is also (likely) in preparation for a future decline.
On a monthly basis, the IDX rallied to its declining 21 High MAC while the weekly charts have not yet done the same. The monthly bounce – from mid-2022 into Feb ’23 – was an ‘A’ and ‘B’ on a larger magnitude… with the (usually larger) ‘C’ wave decline unfolding since Feb ’23.
On a weekly basis, the ensuing decline and rebound (down into Mar ’23, up into Apr ’23) was the ‘1’ and possible** ‘2’ of that new decline – preparing for a ‘3’ of ‘C’ wave decline in the coming months.
(**The ‘2’ wave bounce might not be complete if the S+P Midcap rallies above its April ’23 high, as is more likely. A rally to ~2580/IDX would complete a ‘c’ = ‘a’ rally while testing the weekly 21 High MAC.)
The DJTA is acting similarly but did (also) test and hold its declining weekly 21 High MAC while peaking in sync with weekly cycles on April 17 – 21. Its weekly 21 MARC could provide a little support in late-May… The monthly chart is similar but its 21 MARC would not (likely) become a negative factor until July or Aug ’23. Similar to the weekly pattern, the DJTA tested and held its declining monthly 21 High MAC while peaking in sync with monthly cycles in Feb ‘23…
For now, stocks were projected to spur spike lows on May 15/16 and reverse higher. That is what is taking hold and expected to continue.”
Stock indexes remain in bullish 3 – 6 month cycles & trends, expected to spur another rally into June ’23, even as the monthly charts show a slow, gradual topping pattern. That would corroborate what has already been projected by the Russell 2000 after setting a likely 3 – 6 month low on March 20 – 24, ‘23 (the latest phase of a ~3-month/~90-degree cycle AND a 3-Year Cycle from the March 20 – 24, ’20 low) and projecting a subsequent ~3-month rally (on balance) into mid-to-late-June ‘23.
It bottomed in perfect sync with the onset of the new Natural Year and has moved progressively highs from that low. Reinforcing that strength, several indexes triggered intra-year uptrends that project higher levels into June/July ’23 (mid-year; usually between mid-June & mid-July).
The DJIA turned its weekly trend up, signaling a likely (initial) peak in early-May, and has fulfilled the potential for a 2 – 3 week reactive sell-off… that should be followed by a new rally into the middle portion of June ’23. The S+P 500 is still poised to fulfill analysis (first detailed in early-Jan ’23) for a rally to 4300 – 4350/ES.
Why are Intra-Year Trends & Weekly Trends Forecasting Rallies into June ‘23?
How Does The Russell 2000 ~90-Degree Cycle Progression Corroborate that Outlook?
Can Indexes Exceed 2Q ’23 Targets at ~14,000+/NQ & ~4300 – 4350/ES Likely?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.