Stocks Signal Bullish Extension… into June ‘23; Russell 2K Cycle High Concurs.
04/29/23 Weekly Re-Lay – “The markets completed the first month of the Natural Year (March 20/21 – April 19/20), setting important trading ranges that identify pivotal resistance and support levels. Stock indexes are exceeding those levels, showing additional strength that could last – on balance – into early-June…
Stock Indices expanded their divergence while fulfilling multiple cycle expectations… and likely violating another. The DJTA rallied into April 17 – 21 and perpetuated an ~11-week high-high-(high) Cycle Progression while completing a .618 rebound in time… and then plunged to new 3+-month lows and tested/held its early-2023 low.
At the same time, other stock indexes sold off into mid-week with the DJIA & S+P 500 stretching to their extreme downside intra-week targets (weekly HLS levels) at 33,272/DJIA & 4081/ESM while twice neutralizing their daily uptrends – both indicators arguing for a rally back to their respective highs.
Those signals, and the subsequent rallies into month-end, signaled… a likely extension to the advances that have been unfolding, on balance, since the beginning of 2023…
That was convincingly affirmed by the action of the weekly 21 MACs and the bullish weekly 2 Close Reversal Combo signals generated in the DJIA & S+P 500… a 2 Close Reversal higher generated after a market has spiked down to its weekly HLS. The DJIA turned its weekly trend up, as well.
Looking ahead, a 1 – 2 month peak could stretch into the next phase of a ~9-week/~2-month low/ high-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression in the NQ-100, Russell 2000 & S+P Midcap 400. That would also fulfill an 18-week low-high-(high; June 2 – 9, ’23 Cycle Progression AND a ~12-week low-low-low-(high?) Cycle Progression – arriving on June 2 – 12, ‘23. A high at that time would also arrive 1 year (360 degrees) from the June ’22 lows.
Stock Indices waited until the end of the week to fulfill expectations for new spike highs. In the interim, they had pulled back to weekly extreme support and intermediate support leading into mid-week – a scenario that is significantly more bullish if followed by an intra-week rally to new highs.
On a near-term basis, that reinforces the potential for the NQ-100 to stretch a high as late as May 2 but applies a different context to that potential high. It would now be part of a new intermediate advance that could see its next peak in early-June ’23 – the next phase of its ~2-month high-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression and a corroborating ~1-month high-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression.
In an extreme move, primary indexes could surge to [reserved for subscribers]…”
Stock indexes are generating additional bullish signals, likely to spur another rally into June ’23. That would corroborate what has already been projected by the Russell 2000 after fulfilling multi-month cycle lows on March 20 – 24, ‘23 (as well as a 3-Year Cycle from the March 20 – 24, ’20 low) and projecting a subsequent ~3-month rally (on balance) into mid-to-late-June ‘23.
It bottomed in perfect sync with the onset of the new Natural Year and is following a textbook scenario in which a low around March 20/21 (Vernal Equinox) sets the tone, trend, and trading range for the ensuing Natural Year… and spurs an initial rally into April 19/20. That became the opening range – and breakout resistance – for the months that follow. Leading indexes are now triggering bullish breakout signals, reinforcing their intra-year uptrends (that project higher levels into June/July ’23).
The DJIA just turned its weekly trend up, signaling a likely (initial) peak followed by a 2 – 3 week reactive sell-off. That should be followed by a new rally into the middle portion of June ’23. The S+P 500 is still poised to fulfill analysis (first detailed in early-Jan ’23) for a rally to 4300 – 4350/ES.
Why are Intra-Year Trends & Weekly Trends Forecasting Rallies into June ‘23?
How Does The Russell 2000 ~90-Degree Cycle Progression Corroborate that Outlook?
Can Indexes Exceed 2Q ’23 Targets at ~14,000+/NQ & ~4300 – 4350/ES Likely?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.