Nasdaq-100 & S+P 500 Portend Overall Rallies into June/July ‘23; Mid-Year Peak Likely.
04/27/23 INSIIDE Track – “A new 40-Year Cycle has begun. That has been a topic of discussion for the past ~10 years – identifying 2016 – 2021 as the culmination of the previous 40-Year Cycle and 2022 as the onset of a new one… often the most volatile time within cycles.
Since much of this discussion has centered around the sequence of 40-Year Cycles in America’s history – dating back to 1776 – 1781 when a previous phase reached a crescendo – and since it would be helpful to have a naming system to distinguish each one, we will simply call this new one 40-Year Cycle VIII or 40YC VIII. The previous phase completions were as follows:
40YC I – 1776 – 1781
40YC II – 1816 – 1821
40YC III – 1856 – 1861
40YC IV – 1896 – 1901
40YC V – 1936 – 1941
40YC VI – 1976 – 1981
40YC VII – 2016 – 2021
40YC VII Culmination
Over the past decade, INSIIDE Track repeatedly published expectations and projections related to past 40-Year Cycles and detailed outlooks for 2016 – 2021. These projections included:
— A new Currency War between hard (gold) and fiat (paper) currency, with a new addition – digital (crypto) currency. Gold was forecast to enter the latest phase of its bull market (which began in 1999 & 2001) in 2016 and advance – on balance – into late-2020/early-2021. Digital currency was similar, although its limited cycles projected a rally into late-2021.
— The return of Disease/Influenza Cycles in 2019 – when a 10-Year & 17-Year Cycle would collide with the trough of Solar Cycle 24/25 – the time when outbreaks have often (historically) taken place.
— Coinciding with the return of Disease/Influenza Cycles in 2019, an uncanny sunspot-related cycle of ‘Global Shaping Events’ & Stock Panic Cycles was forecast for late-2019/early-2020 – linked to China.
— A related finale in a 40-year stock market bull cycle that began in 1982 – and saw a decisive intervening low in 2002 (the 20-year midpoint) – was forecast to peak in early-2022.
A 40-year & 20-year low-low-(high; 2022) Cycle Progression – as well as related ~3.25-year, ~6.5-year, ~2-year, ~16-month & ~8-month cycles – all projected a major, multi-year stock market peak to take hold in 2022 (‘most likely in 1Q ‘22, ideally in early-Jan ‘22’).
— A related 80-Year Cycle of War would emerge in late-2021 – late-2025, ushering in 40YC VIII. (The real global-altering events, however, are cyclically more likely in 2027 – 2029!)
— A new climate warming phase in 2016 – 2021 as a 40-Year Cycle of Drought entered its parabolic phase (finale) and ultimately reached fruition, forecast to shift to a related Cycle of Deluge/Floods in 2022/ 2023. This was very similar to the shifts experienced in 1982/83, 1942/43, 1902/03 & 1862/63…
— Along with the crescendo of this latest 40-Year Cycle of Drought, the late-2010’s/early-2020’s were projected to trigger Food Crisis Cycles and spur massive, inflationary surges in grain and food prices.
— The return of Flood Cycles, immediately after the culmination of Drought Cycles in 2021, would usher in a serious challenge related to topsoil… and ultimately create a new challenge for crop production.
Synergy, Synergy, Synergy
There were many corroborating cycles that reinforced these previously-published conclusions. One involved another transition phase that was also projected to be momentous – the shift from Solar Cycle 24 into Solar Cycle 25. That occurred in Dec 2019 – reinforcing all these other cycles expected to culminate, and ultimately transition, in 2020/21 – 2025.
40YC VIII Onset; Food & Flood Cycles
The beginning of 40-Year Cycle VIII – in 2022/2023 – was forecast to be just as dangerous and uncertain as the final years of 40YC VII. The 80-Year Cycle of War actually ushered in 40YC VIII and initiated what should ultimately be a dramatic ‘week of time’ – a 7-year period from late-2021 into late-2028.
The preceding ‘week of time’ (2014 – 2021) laid the groundwork for this, timing the first 7 years of Russia’s moves back into Ukraine. Those Crimea battles were fought exactly 160 years (4 periods of 40-Year Cycles & 2 periods of 80-Year War Cycles) from the original Crimean War in 1853 – 1856… reinforcing the cyclic nature of war. The ‘terror famine’ or ‘great famine’ of 1933 – also perpetrated against Ukraine, by the USSR – connects those 40-Year & 80-Year Cycles.
As the ‘breadbasket of Europe’ entered a phase of upheaval in early-2022, America’s breadbasket is seeing the early challenges of these new Flood Cycles with dangerous flooding along the Mississippi River. At the same time, America’s Cornucopia – the state of California – has suffered far worse flooding that is still expected to extend into 2024 and seriously impact crop production of many varieties.
These flood cycles are also being felt in places as diverse as Utah and Ft Lauderdale, FL. 2023/2024 is fulfilling analysis dating back many years and there are still specific expectations (for 2023/24) yet to be fulfilled. Stay tuned…
Stock Indices have rallied into a decisive time but are in the process of generating bullish weekly signals after pulling back, to begin this past week, and testing/holding their weekly HLS levels (extreme downside targets for this past week).
At the same time, stronger indexes – like the S+P 500 – tested and reversed higher from their rising weekly 21 High MAC… a bullish signal. And most are poised to close higher on the week, generating weekly 2 Close Reversal Combo (bullish) signals.
(That signal is a 2 Close Reversal higher that is generated after a market has spiked down to its weekly SPS and HLS.)
Stocks remain divergent (but positive), particularly on an intra-year trend basis, with the S+P 500 and NQ-100 remaining in intra-year uptrends while the DJIA, Russell 2000 & S+P Midcap 400 are neutral. In the case of the S+P 500 and NQ-100, that intra-year trend structure (and unfulfilled price upside targets) could spur additional upside into June/July ‘23.
The DJTA is another index that originally turned its intra-year trend up in early-Feb ‘23. It has retraced all the way to its early-Jan ‘23 low but would not turn that negative until a weekly close below 13,256/DJTA. Until that occurs, it’s intra-year trend structure is considered positive… or at least constructive.
The weekly trend structure remains positive so that is the guiding force for the 1 – 2 month trend… and could also spur a new round of buying in May ’23, based on recent action. Even the DJTA, with its sharp retracement, has only been able to neutralize its weekly uptrend (multiple times) but would not turn it down until a weekly close below 13,486/DJTA.
Even a look at the weakest index provides a few signs that a new intermediate rally could unfold. As described last month, the Russell 2000 was providing multiple signs of an important bottom at the onset of the new Natural Year… the time when new trends often begin…
While the Russell 2000 has remained the weakest index in recent months, it has not violated the low it set in late-March ‘23. That is a mild positive. Also, in recent weeks it has closed back above its year-opening low – another moderate sign of resilience at the lows. While these indicators do not yet signal a new advance, they open the door for it.
As for the ‘ideal scenario’ discussed last month, the DJIA stretched its initial rally a little farther and a little higher than expected. That showed some additional underlying strength that appears to have impacted/ accelerated the ensuing sell-off.
It was expected to pull back into May ’23 and then enter a new rally (into the first half of June ‘23) before declining into late-July/early-Aug ‘23… and creating another set of divergent lows. By dropping to its weekly HLS this week – as the DJTA spiked to new multi-month lows and extended its correction to 12 weeks in duration – the DJIA likely bottomed a week early and is poised to resume its uptrend.”
Stock indexes are adding bullish signals, expected to spur another rally into Mid-year (June or July) ’23. when diverse cycles converge (NQ-100 cycles on June 2 – 12, DJIA/overall stock cycles in mid-June ‘23/Russell 2K cycles in mid-to-late-June ’23). That would corroborate what has already been projected by the Russell 2000 after setting what should be a 3 – 6 month low on March 20 – 24, ‘23 (also a 3-Year Cycle from the March 20 – 24, ’20 low) and projecting a subsequent ~3-month rally (on balance) into mid-to-late-June ‘23.
It bottomed in perfect sync with the onset of the new Natural Year and is following a textbook scenario in which a low around March 20/21 (Vernal Equinox) sets the tone, trend, and trading range for the ensuing Natural Year… and spurs an initial rally into April 19/20. That became the opening range – and breakout resistance – for the months that follow. Leading indexes are now triggering bullish breakout signals, reinforcing their intra-year uptrends (that project higher levels into June/July ’23).
The DJIA turned its weekly trend up, signaling a likely (initial) peak followed by a 2 – 3 week reactive sell-off. That should be followed by a new rally into the middle portion of June ’23. The S+P 500 is still poised to fulfill analysis (first detailed in early-Jan ’23) for a rally to 4300 – 4350/ES.
Why are Intra-Year Trends & Weekly Trends Forecasting Rallies into June ‘23?
How Does The Russell 2000 ~90-Degree Cycle Progression Corroborate that Outlook?
Can Indexes Exceed 2Q ’23 Targets at ~14,000+/NQ & ~4300 – 4350/ES Likely?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.