Stocks Bullish; Rally into Early-May Possible… 3-Month Cycle Portends June ’23 High.

04/19/23 Weekly Re-Lay Alert – “Stock Indices are completing the first month of the Natural Year, rallying into April 19/20 (Date of Aggression) and showing that additional upside is likely.

Over the last 2 – 3 weeks, the S+P 500 has been one of the strongest indexes and remains on track for a rally back to (at least) 4244/ESM, based on its weekly trend pattern.  It has vacillated in ~6-week moves/cycles so the S+P 500 could stretch a rally into April 24 – 28… in order to fulfill this weekly trend target.  That would complete back-to-back-to-back ~6-week rallies AND a .618 rally in time (46 wks down, 28 wks up).

The DJTA remains positive and is fulfilling the outlook for a rally into April 17 – 21.  Its weekly trend structure corroborates that after the Transports corrected enough to twice neutralize their weekly uptrend… but not turn it down.

At the time, they bottomed while perpetuating a 13 – 14-week high-low-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression and just turned the intra-month trend up.  Both those factors could spur additional upside into late-April.

On a daily chart basis, the DJTA, Russell 2000 and S+P Midcap 400 are positioned for quick sharp rallies over the next 3 – 5 trading days.  Their daily trends, daily 21 MACs and intra-month trends are all positive and in a position where upside breakouts appear imminent.  That, too, could spur buying into late-April…

The mid-March low fulfilled a 75 – 76-day/50 – 51 trading-day low-low-(low) Cycle Progression that could produce a ~50-day/33 – 34 trading-day rally (2/3-cycle) into April 28 – May 2 (followed by a ~25-day/16 trading-day pullback – 1/3 of the cycle – into its next phase).

At the same time, the S+P 500 continues to maintain the likelihood for an overall rally to ~4,300/ES, reinforced by the current week’s LHR at 4282/ESM.”

Stock indexes are completing the first month of Natural Year 2023/24.  The Russell 2000 – which has been the weakest index in recent months – illustrated this perfectly, fulfilling multi-month cycle lows on March 20 – 24, ‘23 (as well as a 3-Year Cycle from the March 20 – 24, ’20 low) and projecting a subsequent ~3-month rally (on balance) into mid-to-late-June ‘23.

It bottomed in perfect sync with the onset of the new Natural Year and is following a textbook scenario in which a low around March 20/21 (Vernal Equinox) sets the tone, trend, and trading range for the ensuing Natural Year… and spurs an initial rally into April 19/20.  That becomes the opening range – and breakout resistance – for the months that follow.  Weekly cycles in many indexes – converging on April 17 – 21 – corroborate that and portend initial highs at this time.

The NQ-100 and S+P 500 are still expected to see additional surge(s) in 2Q ’23 with the S+P 500 repeatedly validating analysis (first detailed in early-Jan ’23) for a rally to 4300 – 4350/ES.

How Do (Bullish) 4-Shadow Signals & Natural Year Analysis Concur?

What Does The Russell 2000 ~90-Degree Cycle Progression Portend for 2Q ‘23?

How Soon are Projected Tests of ~14,000+/NQ & ~4300 – 4350/ES Likely?

Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.