Silver Sweet Spot: Next Peak in Late-October ’23?
07-19-23 – “Gold & Silver: When is Upside Breakout Most Likely? – That wave structure was again illustrated in the April 11, ’23 The Bridge – Gold, Silver and Elliott Wave Structure, a copy of which is included above.
Along with that were a couple of wave diagrams discussing Gold’s unfolding ‘triple top’ and the likely ramifications of that pattern (an ultimate breakout higher, later in 2023). As stated back then:
04-11-23 – “Gold & Silver were forecast to surge from cycle lows in Sept ‘22 (Silver) & 4Q ’22 (Gold) into late-2023 (the initial phase of a new bull market). That is expected to affirm related analysis for the 2020’s… as the latest phase of an uncanny 40-Year Cycle takes hold and ushers in dramatic changes…
While the Dollar Index was whipping up and down, Gold was forecast to see a major advance from late-2015 into late-2020/early-2021. So, even though the Dollar Index was trading sideways, the US Dollar was losing value against Gold throughout that entire period… setting the stage for 2021 – 2025.
The Wave Structure
Both markets adhered to those outlooks with Gold heading back to its multi-year/multi-decade high before completing that phase of a new bull market in precious metals. Gold set a peak in Aug ‘20 (2060 – 2080/GC) – in line with multi-month and multi-year cycles – and then retraced into March ‘21. It then rallied into March ‘22 and retested – but did not close above – the Aug ‘20 peak.
That reinforced what was forecast to be a multi-year peak (2020) and spurred a second sell-off in Gold back down to, and briefly below, the March ‘21 low – leading into the time frame (4Q ‘22) when another major (multi-year) low was projected for Gold…
If Gold can make it back up to 2060 – 2080/GCM, potentially when intermediate cycles peak in early-May ‘23, it would produce another important clue for the coming years…
Wave Structure Recap
In Sept & Nov ‘22, Silver & Gold completed multi-year corrective phases – ‘a-b-c’ and ‘A-B-C’ declines on two different magnitudes – and fulfilled cycle lows that came into play at that time. That ushered in what were forecast to be 1 – 2 year (or longer) bull markets in those metals…
One of the factors that removed a heavy burden from Gold & Silver was the US Dollar reaching a combination of major, multi-year upside price targets in 3Q/4Q ‘22… the Dollar Index has fulfilled almost all of what has been projected for its 1 – 2 year and 10 – 15 year advance…
At the time, Silver had signaled a major bottom (early-Sept ‘22), Gold was on track for a multi-year bottom in 4Q ‘22 (arrived in Nov ‘22)… The Dollar Index set its highest weekly close in mid-Oct ’22… That removed a psychological ‘weight’ off anti-Dollar financial instruments (metals & cryptos)…
This interplay – between paper, hard, and digital currency – also includes interest rates, which could have a profound impact on Gold & Silver over the next 12 – 18 months. As described in the Sept ‘22 quote, Dollar strength AND rising interest rates were suppressing the price of Gold & Silver… but were unable to force them into an all-out bear market.
Instead, Gold & Silver went through a corrective phase …biding their time as the Dollar completed the majority of its uptrend… and then interest rates did the same. That is why the outlook for Bonds could hold the key…
The Inflationary Delay
Since 3Q ‘20, Bonds have been forecast to plunge into 3Q ‘22 and ultimately into ~March ‘23 – the ideal trend duration for a 4-Year Cycle, like the one that has governed Bonds for several decades.
Even though the Fed could still raise rates one or more times in the coming months, the markets are already turning their focus to the potential for lower interest rates in the coming 6 – 12 months…
So what does that have to do with Gold & Silver?
…When inflation is raging, interest rates are usually rising and that keeps a lid on Gold prices. However, when those interest rate hikes near an end – even as underlying inflation remains in place (though pulling back from its peak), it provides the optimum scenario for advances in Gold & Silver.
When, as was the case in 2022, interest rate hikes are helping to support the Dollar, their removal has a dual-bullish impact on Gold & Silver.
Gold & Silver entered this period in late-2022… That is not to say interest rates are the ONLY factor in spurring rallies or declines in metals. Instead, it is to identify a period of time when rates should be favorable for repeated gains in metals.”
Gold did rally back to its high (~2080/GC) and did peak in early-May ’23, in perfect lockstep with the overall expected scenario for 2023…
Gold & Silver remain in multi-month consolidation phases between their late-Feb/early-March ’23 lows and the subsequent cycle highs set on May 3 – 5.
Those highs fulfilled ~3-month low-high-(high) & ~4-month low-high-(high) Cycle Progressions in Gold & Silver – while testing upside price targets at 2060 – 2080/ GC & 26.50/SI – and could produce a subsequent, intervening high in early-Aug ’23 (the latest phase of the ~3-month Cycle Progression in Gold).
Those early-May highs reinforced the focus on late-Oct/early-Nov ’23 for the next multi-month peaks in Gold & Silver…
On a near-term basis, Gold & Silver have rallied since bottoming in late-June – fulfilling a ~17-week high-high-low-low-low-(low; June 26 – 30, ‘23) Cycle Progression…
Silver could peak on July 28 (1 trading day before the Gold cycles, so pretty close in sync) when a pair of wave timing objectives would be met… That would then be expected to spur a decline into [reserved for subscribers]…
It is also the mid-point of the latest phase of the ~17-week high-high-low-low-low-low (June 26 – 30) – (high; Oct 23 – Nov 3, ’23) Cycle Progression…”
Gold & Silver have remained in a corrective phase since fulfilling projections for multi-month peaks on May 3 – 5, ’23 (while convincingly reinforcing two future cycles). The next multi-month peak is expected in the second half of Oct ’23 – when multiple weekly cycles converge.
All of this action, since late-2022, is powerfully validating the onset of a new 40-Year Cycle of Currency War in which Gold & Silver possess unique potential with the Dollar Index already fulfilling multi-year upside targets and signaling that a major top is in the making!
Why is Silver Entering ‘Sweet Spot’ in 2023/2024?
Could Dollar & Interest Rates Decline in 2024?
Refer to the April 11, 2023 special issue of The Bridge – Gold, Silver and Elliott Wave Structure for expanded analysis that addresses some of those questions.
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.