Stocks Plunge into April 19th; Set ‘Opening Range’ of Natural Year 2024.
04/24/24 – “Intra-month & intra-year trends are a prime example of how to utilize the opening range of a given period of time. Opening ranges play a key role in analyzing the markets. That has been evident in many trading systems (like Market Profile, which was heavily used by day traders in the 1980’s & 1990’s) and/or approaches to analyzing and timing market movement & swings.
Another variation of a year-opening range – and the resulting resistance, support, and intra-‘year’ trend – has been discussed the past ~6 weeks and was projected to spur an initial sell-off in stocks (and another sharp rally in Gold & Silver) from ~March 21st into April 19th.
That was/is the opening range of the Natural Year.
The Natural Year in Stock Indexes
The Natural Year refers to a natural, agricultural & astronomical-based year that begins with the vernal equinox of one year and extends until the vernal equinox of the ensuing year.
Natural Year 2023/2024 came to a close on March 20, 2024 and was projected to usher in another significant shift in trend in stocks… to the downside.
In March 2023, the Natural Year shift began a new stock market advance that continued until the close of that Natural Year – a 360-degree move.
In March 2022, the Natural Year shift ushered in a decisive peak (and subsequent sell-off) that held for over a year. That peak was two 360-degree cycles ago. In conjunction with the recurring ~2-Year Cycle, March 2024 held some similarities.
In March 2021, the Natural Year shift began a new stock market advance with the corresponding low holding for almost 15 months. That, too, held a ~2-Year Cycle connection to the advance from March 2023.
In March 2020, the Natural Year shift timed the precise bottom in stock prices and began a new stock market advance that has now lasted ~4 years.
In many cases, the weeks immediately following that shift provide some clues about what’s to come…
The Natural Year ‘Opening Range’
The first month of the Natural Year – from March 20/21 until April 19/20 – has an oversized impact on key markets during specific years.
2024 was/is set up to be one of them, based on a myriad of corroborating cycles and indicators!
That first ‘month’ (the ‘Month of Aggression’) led into the Week of Aggression (April 12 – 19th) and ultimately into the Date of Aggression (April 19th) – a time that has had a sometimes-dramatic impact on the markets, on America, and/or on the globe.
It is often a time of increased conflict or attacks – usually linked to corroborating cycles – and was forecast to see related occurrences in 2024. Surrounding those external events, foreshadowing moves were expected in markets like Gold & Silver.
INSIIDE Track has detailed that correlation for over two decades and 2024 was forecast to provide another fulfillment (with an initial sell-off in stock indexes)…
Date of Aggression 2022…and Natural Year ’22/23″
Action & Reaction
Before getting into updated analysis for stocks and other markets, there is another piece of groundwork that needs to be laid. It involves the culmination of initial moves (like the recent stock market sell-off and Gold/Silver surges into April 19th) and what typically follows.
Often, those initial moves occur in lockstep with daily & weekly trend reversals – a tool that helps confirm overarching reversals while simultaneously identifying when an initial extreme has been reached…
The INSIIDE Track Trend Indicator is a confirming one – a lagging, not leading indicator. Other indicators are used to trigger a trade – or signal an initial reversal. They are considered leading indicators. In contrast, the Trend Indicator is used to confirm those signals.
It is also a fractal indicator… as are many of INSIIDE Track’s indicators.
Much like a lower magnitude wave is only a small part of a larger wave (an initial 5-wave advance – comprised of a rally, pullback, rally, pullback and rally – combine to form the 1st wave/rally of a larger 5-wave advance… and so on), a lower magnitude trend signal is the first step in what could be a larger trend reversal.
A daily trend reversal, which takes a minimum of three days to complete**, usually spurs a move to a weekly trend reversal decision point.
[**A daily uptrend requires two neutral signals – against that uptrend – before a full downward reversal signal can be generated… on the third day or any day after that.]
In other words, when a daily trend reverses to down, a market is often in the process of generating the first or second neutral signal against a prevailing weekly uptrend. It is only after that second neutral signal is generated that the weekly trend can reverse down.
That is the decision point.
During that ‘third’ week (after two weeks of neutral signals), the market has its first chance to completely reverse the prevailing weekly uptrend. Regardless of the end result, that decision point often times the culmination of an intermediate move.
If the market fails to reverse down during that decision point week, it will often spur a contrasting move back to the previous high (since the weekly trend failed to turn down, leaving the prevailing uptrend intact).
If the market reverses down during that decision point week, it will often spur a 1 – 3 week reactionary rally that should not exceed the previous high (since the weekly trend turned down and will likely spur a future drop to lower lows as part of that downtrend).
In many cases, a market will rally strong enough – during that reactionary rebound – to neutralize the new weekly downtrend (once or twice). In that case, it would create a new decision point week – during which that market would be expected to reverse back down and subsequently drop below the initial low.
In other cases, the market rallies but fails to neutralize the new weekly downtrend at all, usually leading to a sharper decline than the preceding one. Before getting lost in the weeds, let’s take this to a practical and current application…
Stock Indices are reinforcing potential multi-month peaks after fulfilling initial expectations from late-March reversals & sell signals. The first phase was projected to envelop the Month of Aggression – the first ‘month’ of the new Natural Year, from March 20/21st into April 19th (Date of Aggression).
That is exactly what unfolded with the sell-off leading to Friday’s accelerated decline in AI and chip stocks. Proxy stocks like NVDA powerfully reinforced this outlook, signaling multi-week (or month) peaks on March 25th and triggering decisive reversal signals in the days that followed.
That also projected sharp sell-offs into ~April 19th.
The price action in that ‘proxy stock’ projected an initial drop to 750 – 765/NVDA (range target, weekly HLS levels, monthly HLS, symmetrical wave targets, 20% decline, etc.). In line with recent lows (Feb 21 & March 19), that stock also projected a drop into April 19th – the Date of Aggression…
The S+P Midcap rallied into early-April ’24 – reaching its multi-year upside target while fulfilling a ~14.5-month high-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression – connecting peaks in Sept ’20, Nov ’21, Feb ’23 and April 2024.
[Leading stocks like AMZN have a 33 – 34-month high (Dec ’15) – high (Sept ’18) – high (July ’21) – (high; April/ May 2024) Cycle Progression that was also fulfilled.]
All of these over-arching cycles reinforced the outlook for a multi-week drop from March 21 – 25 into April 19th…
1 – 3 month & 3 – 6 month traders could have lightened up on long positions in anticipation of a sell-off [reserved for subscribers].” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
Stock Indexes fulfilled multi-week sell signals that projected a sharp decline into April 19th… the completion of Natural Year 2024/25’s ‘Opening Range’. That aligns with focus on the Week of Aggression (April 12 – 19th) & Date of Aggression (April 19th) – the culmination of this pivotal transition period (the first ‘month’ of the new Natural Year… the Month of Aggression).
Weekly trend reversals in the weaker indexes should usher in a reactive multi-week bounce that could lead to another divergent peak before a new decline takes hold. In contrast, the stronger NQ-100 remains positive.
How Does The Drop into ~April 19th Impact the Rest of the Natural Year?
How Does This Correspond to 17-Year Cycle of Stock Declines (and Related Analysis for 4Q ’24)?
Could This Ultimately Lead into the 2025/26 Recession Cycle?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.