Stocks Project Lower Lows in April ‘25; Prepare for Intervening Peak This Week!
03/22/25 – “Stock indexes initially bottomed on March 12/13th in sync with daily & weekly cycle lows while attacking and holding pivotal multi-month downside objectives and extreme weekly downside targets. They could still see lower lows in April but are likely to extend their rebounds into the coming week
Stock Indices dropped sharply into mid-March, reaching multi-month downside targets & weekly extreme downside targets (HLS) while bottoming in sync with daily & weekly cycle lows converging on March 12/13th…
The S+P Midcap 400 attacked its 3 – 6 month downside target (2850/IDX) on March 13, fulfilling its primary 1Q ’25 downside objective and setting the stage for a quick rebound.
That low came exactly 2 months from the Jan 13th low and fulfilled an uncanny range-trading target – discussed in late-Nov/early-Dec ’24 – and also a form of ‘4th wave of lesser degree’ support, increasing the likelihood for a multi-week low to take hold. It also fulfilled a primary wave target.
The Russell 2000 had related downside targets near 2000/QR (1985 – 2015/QRM), which were fulfilled when it spiked down to 2002/QRM on March 13th and signaled (at least) 1 – 2 week low.
The low on March 13/14th also had the NQ-100 fulfilling a .618 retracement in time (19 wks up, 12 wks down) and a ~31-week/~7-month low-low-(low) Cycle Progression… as the IDX completed successive ~7-week declines (wave symmetry).
At the same time, the DJTA fulfilled its outside-week/2 Close Reversal (~3-week) sell signal generated on Feb 21st. The DJTA completed a .618 retracement in time (24 wks up/14 – 15 wks down) after attacking its multi-month downside price target at ~14,600/DJTA, fulfilling monthly AND weekly extreme downside targets (HLS), symmetry between the two declines (‘c’ = ‘a’), and a 50% retracement of the entire 2022 – ’24 rally.
Those lows were expected to spur a quick rally to key levels with the potential to peak in the coming week when a ~17-week/~4-month high-high-high-(high; Mar 24 – 28) Cycle Progression and the midpoint of an over-over-arching ~35-week/~8-month high-high-high-(high; Nov 25 – 29, ‘24) Cycle Progression (next phase is in late-July ’25 and could time a future low) next peak.
Stock indices bottomed on March 13th and are poised to extend their subsequent rebound into the coming week – when a high is likely.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK
Stock Indexes are poised for a rebound peak and the onset of a new sell-off – projected to carry them to lower lows into early-April ‘25. This is expected to add confirmation of a broader stock market (seismic) shift – validating weekly trend and multi-month 4-Shadow signals triggered in January (portending a larger-magnitude sell-off after January 22/23rd). A new drop into early-April would reinforce July ’25 cycles and fulfill what has been detailed in Weekly Re-Lay analysis:
3-05-25 – “In either case, the stronger focus is on late-March/early-April ’25 – when a more significant low has been projected to take hold. In the interim, a review of some key price objectives is warranted. The first involves the uncanny range-trading target in the S+P Midcap 400 – coming into play around 2850/IDX. That is also a form of ‘4th wave of lesser degree’ support (the low before a culminating rally), reinforcing its significance.
The related high (Dec ’23) and lows (April & Aug ’24) are at 2810 – 2817/IDX – so that is a more likely downside target/support for this decline… Reinforcing that, the rising monthly 21 Low MAC is around 2785 and could reach ~2810 in April ’25…. The monthly HLS (extreme downside target for March ’25) is at 2803/IDX.” — March 5, 2025 Weekly Re-Lay Alert
Have 2 – 3 Month Downside Targets & March 12/13th Cycle Lows Ushered in Initial Low?
How High (and How Long) Could Subsequent Rebound Reach?
What Would S+P Midcap Drop Below 2800/IDX Mean for 2Q 2025?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.