Stocks Rebounding But Prepare for Late-March Plunge; ~42,800/DJIA Could Set Rebound Top.
03/19/25 – “Stock Indices dropped sharply into mid-March with most indexes reaching multi-month downside targets while bottoming in sync with daily & weekly cycle lows surrounding March 12/13th…
By themselves, those factors do not assure that a multi-month bottom is intact. Stock indexes could still see lower lows in late-March/early-April and continue to provide intriguing parallels to 2020 and also to 2008 (the previous phase of the 17-Year Cycle).
They do however, show that 1 – 2 week lows – at the very least – were likely set in lockstep with the fulfillment of all those targets… many of them stemming from the February 18th highs and related sell signals.
Others – as illustrated above and detailed for several months – stem from the November 22, ’24 peaks and subsequent sell signals in key indexes…
The S+P Midcap 400 attacked its 3 – 6 month downside target (2850/IDX) on March 13, fulfilling its primary 1Q ’25 downside objective and setting the stage for a quick rebound.
That low came exactly 2 months from the Jan 13th low and fulfilled an uncanny range-trading target – discussed in late-Nov/early-Dec ’24 – and also a form of ‘4th wave of lesser degree’ support, increasing the likelihood for a multi-week low to take hold.
[Similar charts – detailing this range-trading downside target were published in Nov & Dec ’24 INSIIDE Tracks & Weekly Re-Lays.]
That also had the IDX reaching the point where the latest decline – from the Feb 18/19th peak – equaled 1.272 (2DGR) times the magnitude of the initial late–Nov-through-mid-January decline – the ideal initial downside target for a decline that is part of a developing bear market.
The Russell 2000 had related downside targets near 2000/QR (1985 – 2015/QRM), which were fulfilled when it spiked down to 2002/QRM on March 13th and signaled a (minimum) 1 – 2 week bottom.
The low on March 13/14th also had the NQ-100 fulfilling a .618 retracement in time (19 weeks up, 12 weeks down) and a related ~31-week/~7-month low-low-(low) Cycle Progression… as the IDX completed successive ~7-week declines (wave symmetry).
At the same time, the DJTA fulfilled its outside-week/2 Close Reversal sell signal – and weekly 21 MAC Reversal sequence – both generated on Feb 18 – 21st. In setting the recent low, the DJTA completed a .618 retracement in time (24 wks up/14 – 15 wks down) after attacking its multi-month downside price target at ~14,600/DJTA.
That objective included monthly AND weekly HLS levels (extreme downside targets) as well as the low from 2024… a type of 4th wave of lesser degree support on a longer-term basis.
The drop to that level provided symmetry between the two declines since the Nov ’24 peak (‘c’ = ‘a’ down). It also included a 50% retracement of the entire 2022 – 2024 advance.
The NQ-100 had similar cycles projecting a multi-week low last week. After spending the last few months tracing out a textbook Turn-Key Reversal, that culminated with the February outside-month/2 Close Reversal lower, the NQ-100 projected an initial low on March 10 – 14th.
A low on March 11 – 13th would have that index fulfilling a .618 retracement in time (19 weeks up, 12 weeks down) and a related ~31-week/~7-month low-low-(low) Cycle Progression… precisely when the NQ-100 set its recent low.
Those lows could spur a quick rally to key levels like 42,801 – 42,907/DJIA (50% rebound, weekly LHR, weekly 21 Low MAC & weekly 2CR target)… On a near-term basis, there are key levels to watch in the coming days. One of those is around 20,370 – 20,445/NQM, where the NQ-100 has daily LHRs, the declining daily 21 Low MAC, daily trend resistance, weekly resistance & Raw SPR, weekly 2nd Close Resistance, and a pair of short-term wave targets.
Stock indexes could peak as early as March xx, fulfilling various daily & weekly cycles including the S+P Midcap 400 ~8-week low-low-low-low-high-high Cycle Progression that timed the Nov ’24 & Jan ’25 peaks. Daily trends, LHRs, and other indicators should help hone this outlook [reserved for subscribers]…” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK
Stock Indexes are rebounding after fulfilling projections for sharp plunges into March 12/13th when a multi-week low was projected to take hold. That was/is expected to add confirmation of a broader stock market (seismic) shift – validating weekly trend and multi-month 4-Shadow signals triggered in January (portending a larger-magnitude sell-off after January 22/23rd). Another drop into late-March/early-April is projected.
The DJIA is expected to bounce to ~42,800, where a myriad of 1 – 2 week upside targets & resistance levels converge and are likely to help pinpoint a rebound peak. That would usher in the time for another plunge that is likely to take stocks to new lows into early-April, in sync with repeated Weekly Re-Lay analysis:
3-05-25 – “In either case, the stronger focus is on late-March/early-April ’25 – when a more significant low has been projected to take hold. In the interim, a review of some key price objectives is warranted. The first involves the uncanny range-trading target in the S+P Midcap 400 – coming into play around 2850/IDX. That is also a form of ‘4th wave of lesser degree’ support (the low before a culminating rally), reinforcing its significance.
The related high (Dec ’23) and lows (April & Aug ’24) are at 2810 – 2817/IDX – so that is a more likely downside target/support for this decline… Reinforcing that, the rising monthly 21 Low MAC is around 2785 and could reach ~2810 in April ’25…. The monthly HLS (extreme downside target for March ’25) is at 2803/IDX.” — March 5, 2025 Weekly Re-Lay Alert
Have 2 – 3 Month Downside Targets & March 12/13th Cycle Lows Ushered in Initial Low?
How High (and How Long) Could Subsequent Rebound Reach?
What Would S+P Midcap Drop Below 2800/IDX Mean for 2Q 2025?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.