Stocks Poised for Brief Rebound Before Drop into Late-March/early-April; Watch ~42,800/DJIA.
03/15/25 – “Stock indexes dropped sharply into mid-March with multiple indexes reaching multi-month downside targets while bottoming in sync with daily & weekly cycle lows surrounding March 12/ 13th. They could still see lower lows in late-March/ early-April and continue to provide intriguing parallels to 2020 and also to 2008 (the previous phase of the 17-Year Cycle)…
Stock indices fulfilled most of what was expected from these latest declines – stemming from the February 18th highs and related sell signals. The S+P Midcap 400 attacked its 3 – 6 month downside target (2850/IDX) on March 13, setting the stage for a quick rebound.
That came exactly 2 months from the Jan 13th low and fulfilled an uncanny range-trading target – discussed in late-Nov/early-Dec ’24 – and also a form of ‘4th wave of lesser degree’ support, increasing the likelihood for a multi-week low to take hold. [Related charts – detailing this range-trading downside target were published in Nov & Dec ’24 INSIIDE Tracks & Weekly Re-Lays.]
That also had the IDX reaching the point where this latest decline – from the Feb 18/19th peak – equaled 1.272 (2DGR) times the magnitude of the initial late–Nov-through-mid-January decline – the initial downside target for a decline that is part of a developing bear market.
A low on March 13/14th also had the NQ-100 fulfilling a .618 retracement in time (19 weeks up, 12 weeks down) and a related ~31-week/~7-month low-low-(low) Cycle Progression… as the IDX completed successive ~7-week declines.
At the same time, the DJTA fulfilled its outside-week/2 Close Reversal sell signal – and textbook weekly 21 MAC Reversal sequence – both generated on Feb 18 – 21st. In setting this low, the DJTA completed a .618 retracement in time (24 wks up/14 – 15 wks down).
This could spur a quick rally to key levels like 42,801 – 42,907/DJIA (50% rebound, weekly LHR, weekly 21 Low MAC & weekly 2CR target)… These rebounds should go a long way in clarifying when & where subsequent late-March/early-April ’25 lows are most likely.
Several of these indexes could set rebound peaks on March xx – xx, fulfilling various daily & weekly cycles including the ~8-week low-low-low-low-high-high Cycle Progression in the S+P Midcap that timed the Nov ’24 & Jan ’25 peaks.
Stock indices sold off into March 13th – fulfilling daily & weekly cycles and intra-month downtrend targets, setting the stage for a quick rally [reserved for subscribers]…” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK
Stock Indexes fulfilled projections for sharp plunges into March 12/13th when a multi-week low was projected to be most likely. That was/is expected to add confirmation of a broader stock market (seismic) shift – validating weekly trend and multi-month 4-Shadow signals triggered in January (portending a larger-magnitude sell-off after January 22/23rd). Another drop into late-March/early-April is projected.
The DJIA is expected to bounce to ~42,800, where a myriad of 1 – 2 week upside targets & resistance levels converge. That would then usher in the time for another plunge that is likely to take stocks to new lows into early-April, in sync with repeated Weekly Re-Lay analysis:
3-05-25 – “In either case, the stronger focus is on late-March/early-April ’25 – when a more significant low has been projected to take hold. In the interim, a review of some key price objectives is warranted. The first involves the uncanny range-trading target in the S+P Midcap 400 – coming into play around 2850/IDX. That is also a form of ‘4th wave of lesser degree’ support (the low before a culminating rally), reinforcing its significance.
The related high (Dec ’23) and lows (April & Aug ’24) are at 2810 – 2817/IDX – so that is a more likely downside target/support for this decline… Reinforcing that, the rising monthly 21 Low MAC is around 2785 and could reach ~2810 in April ’25…. The monthly HLS (extreme downside target for March ’25) is at 2803/IDX.” — March 5, 2025 Weekly Re-Lay Alert
Have 2 – 3 Month Downside Targets & March 12/13th Cycle Lows Ushered in Initial Low?
How High (and How Long) Could Subsequent Rebound Reach?
What Would S+P Midcap Drop Below 2800/IDX Mean for 2Q 2025?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.