Stocks Project New Lows After Pivotal Peak; April ’25 Cycle Lows in Focus!
03/28/25 – “Stock Indices did extend their rebounds into the past week, attacking minimum upside targets with the DJIA reaching its primary upside objective. They turned back down – in sync with weekly/monthly cycles – and are fulfilling the outlook for subsequent declines into late-March/early-April.
They fulfilled expectations for a multi-week peak this past week – perpetuating a ~17-week/~4-month high-high-high-(high; Mar 24 – 28) Cycle Progression and the midpoint of an over-over-arching ~35-week/~8-month high-high-high-(high; Nov 25 – 29, ‘24) Cycle Progression.
They reached 1 – 2 week upside targets (see Weekly Re-Lay) with the DJIA peaking at 42,821 as the NQ-100 peaked right at its descending daily 21 High MAC (20,528/NQM; high was 20,536/NQM). The DJIA, S+P 500 & Russell 2000 also peaked in line with their daily 21 MACs and daily trends and immediately reversed lower.
The DJIA was the most precise, reaching its primary upside objective at 42,801 – 42,907/DJIA (50% rebound, weekly LHR, weekly 21 Low MAC & weekly 2CR) before reversing back down. The now-declining weekly 21 Low MAC was at 42,815 as the DJIA peaked at 42,821 and reversed lower.
That occurred in sync with their daily trend patterns as the DJIA, S+P 500, NQ-100 & S+P Midcap 400 turned their daily trends up – a lagging indicator that usually times an initial high and spurs a reactive 2 – 3 day sell-off. (See Weekly Re-Lay for related 1 – 3 day ramifications.)
That has spurred a reactive drop back toward multi-month downside targets… While this does not immediately signal a bottom, it does fulfill another critical criterion for the forming of a late-March/early-April ’25 low followed by a higher magnitude rebound…
From a much broader perspective, other cyclic factors should be reiterated:
2025 is a full 17-Year Cycle from the last major decline in the stock market (not including the ~2-month Covid plunge of 1Q 2020).
2025 is a full 17-Year Cycle from the inception of Bitcoin… a market that has exhibited a close connection to specific stock indexes.
2025/2026 is a full 17-Year Cycle from the last significant recession in the US… and has been projected (since 2023) to time the next major recession – making this cycle accurate 13 of the 14 times it has recurred since the founding of America (1940/1941 was the only exception).
2025/26 has been forecast, for the past two years, to trigger the second major wave of stagflation in the US (linked to diverse cycles) – a topic that is suddenly being discussed in economic circles (cycles and technical analysis usually identify these things long before the fundamentals become obvious).
2025 is two full 17-Year Cycles from the start of the 1990’s bull market in stocks – a run-up that culminated with the dot-com bubble in the late-1990’s. It (2025) was/is the time for culmination of the latest bull market.
2025 is three full 17-Year Cycles from the start of the late-20th century bull market in stocks that began in 1974, had a major correction at its midpoint (1987), and peaked in early-2000. It (2025) was/is the time for culmination of the latest bull market.
2025 is 7 full 17-Year Cycles from the stock market peak of January 1906, which was followed by the Panic of 1907 and a ~2-year decline of 50% (which looks remarkably similar in magnitude & duration to the 1973/1974 ~50% crash).
2025 is a full 17-Year Cycle from the last major bottom in the US Dollar Index and has been forecast to time a sharp drop in the Dollar – leading into a late-2025 bottom. That projected Dollar weakness could be both a cause and a consequence of declining stock prices.
All of that, and much more, reinforces the impact of the 17-Year Cycle – a cycle that is intimately connected to the magnetic swings in the Sun, Earth and the geomagnetic oscillations between the two.
If a 1 – 2 month low is set in the March/April time frame – in line with that has been detailed since late-November ’24 – it would add another level of corroboration to future cycles bottoming in July ’25.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK
Stock Indexes peaked on March 25/26th – during multi-week & multi-month cycle highs and right at pivotal 1 – 2 week resistance levels – and remain on track for lower lows into early-April ‘25. This is confirmation of a broader stock market (seismic) shift – validating weekly trend and multi-month 4-Shadow signals triggered in January and corresponding sell signals triggered on/after January 22/23rd. A drop into April would reinforce July ’25 cycles and fulfill what has been detailed in Weekly Re-Lay analysis:
3-05-25 – “In either case, the stronger focus is on late-March/early-April ’25 – when a more significant low has been projected to take hold… the rising monthly 21 Low MAC is around 2785 and could reach ~2810 in April ’25…. The monthly HLS (extreme downside target for March ’25) is at 2803/IDX.” — March 5, 2025 Weekly Re-Lay Alert
What Would Late-March/Early-April Drop Portend for 2Q 2025?
How Low is Next Decline Likely to Fall… and What Will Likely Follow?
Is S+P Midcap Still Likely to Drop Below 2800/IDX in April ‘25?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.