Gold Poised for Brief Pullback, Then Rally to New Highs; XAU Elevates Advance & Projects Higher Levels!
Gold Poised for Brief Pullback, Then Rally to New Highs; XAU Elevates Advance & Projects Higher Levels!
06/29/19 Weekly Re-Lay: “Gold & Silver surged into this past week with Gold testing the upper end of its primary (1 – 2 year) upside target at 1445.0/GC.
This came in the week after Gold & Silver turned their weekly trends up – signaling the time for an initial (1 – 3 week) top while also increasing the odds for another rally after a brief correction.
With these uptrends accelerating, the same is expected from corresponding corrections. That appears to have been the case as Gold dropped 40.0+/GCQ from its high – testing and holding its daily HLS and daily trend support. Based on that action, Gold could see a rally to new highs in the coming week.
While Gold was doing that, Silver completed a 1-week pullback – also testing and holding daily trend support as well as its previous high (resistance turned into support) near 15.200/SIU. With the ascending daily 21 High MAC now intersecting that support, 15.200/SIU should be viewed as a pivotal and decisive level in the coming week.
Barring a gap below that level (this weekend’s G-20 meeting and Trump/Xi meeting could produce a range of surprises – good or bad), Silver should rally to new highs and could still see a spike above 16.000/SIU…
The intra-year trend concurred and projected a rally into late-June/early-July (mid-year). That was reinforced by the monthly 2 Close Reversal higher Gold triggered in May – confirming its late-April/early-May buy signal (~1270.0/GC) and projecting 1 – 3 months of bullish follow-through.
So, Gold & Silver have fulfilled the minimum necessary to validate this analysis… but could still see higher levels before a multi-week top forms.
Gold also attacked a pivotal upside target on a 6 – 12 month and 3 – 6 month basis, as well. ~1445.0/GCQ is the first 1 – 2 year upside target and is also a doubling of Gold’s intra-year trading range. That range, from 1275 – 1360.0/GCQ, lasted from Jan. – mid-June. A close above it turned focus to 1445.0/GCQ – a doubling of that ~85.0/GCQ trading range that had previously prevailed.
1445.0/GCQ was also the upper end of weekly resistance this past week, reinforcing the focus on this level. It could continue to provide resistance, particularly on a daily close basis, in the coming week. A spike above it is possible, but Gold would need a daily close above it to signal a breakout. (The next key level, and second 1 – 2 year upside target, is around 1525.0/GC.)
The XAU initially fulfilled expectations for a surge from May 22 into June 24 – 28 and up to ~86.00/XAU, where this new rally would equal the magnitude of the Sept. ’18 – Feb. ’19 advance. That does not, however, prevent additional upside in the coming days.
It also gave a monthly close above 80.76 – a more convincing bullish signal that allowed the XAU to close above its monthly 21 High MAC for the first time since Aug. 2017.
Not only that, but the monthly 21 MARC is dropping and comes in at 88.19 (21 High MARC) and 80.66 (21 Low MARC) in July ‘19. Combined with the initial intra-year high (now support) at 80.76 and the monthly 21 Low AMAC (80.50), the XAU is likely to test that support (80.50 – 80.76/XAU) at some point during July.
Ideally, the XAU will also exceed 88.19 at some point during July. That would turn the direction of the monthly 21 High MAC up in the month after price closed above that channel – a textbook bullish sequence, basis that indicator. Daily & weekly trends and indicators should help clarify. For now, the trend is up until a daily close below 82.12/XAU.”
Gold attacks primary upside target but maintains potential for higher levels in July 2019. Gold/Silver Index (XAU) elevates advance while reinforcing forecast for overall surge into July/August ‘19 and ideally above 90.00. Pullback to ~80.76 should spur surge above 88.19 in July. Silver poised for accelerated rally.
Why is XAU Poised to Outperform Gold?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.