Stock Trading: Indexes Remain on Track for New Highs; Fulfilling Forecast for Advance from late-Aug. into Nov. 11 – 15! Likely Triggers??
10/23/19 Weekly Re-Lay Alert: “Stock Indices remain in multi-week uptrends, trading near their multi-month highs with their underlying weekly trend patterns still arguing for a rally back to/above their July peaks.
Since Jan. ’19, many indexes have traded sideways, swinging in 1 – 2 month moves in opposing directions – while peaking and bottoming at similar levels. The Russell 2000 and DJ Transports are two prime examples. Based on their weekly trend patterns, both of these could see retests of their July & Sept. ’19 highs.
The determining factors will be how soon, and how far, potential spike highs exceed those multi-month peaks.
On an intermediate basis, equities were projected to peak in mid-Sept., sell off into early-Oct. and rally into (and set a 1 – 2 week peak on) Oct. 14/15 – fulfilling daily trend patterns, daily LHRs, intra-month uptrends, and a recurring ~30-degree cycle (highs on 7/15 – 16, 8/13 & 9/12**) as well as a ~90-degree move (3 months) from the mid-July high.
**That ~30-degree cycle could produce a future peak on Nov. 14/15 – 30 days/degrees in the future.
All of that was fulfilled and the mid-Oct. peak was forecast to trigger a multi-day pullback before a new rally took hold (ideally on Oct. 21) and spurred them higher into late-Oct./early-Nov. They have done just that, with key indexes attacking and holding their daily HLS levels (extreme downside targets) as they tested and rebounded from their daily 21 High MACs before rallying. As stated on Oct. 19, 2019:
“In the textbook scenario, that should spur a new rally and turn the direction of the daily 21 High MAC up… in the next 1 – 3 days. The inversely-correlated daily 21 MARCs will enter a steady decline on Oct. 18/21 – a drop that will last almost two weeks and provide a developing positive influence on the (inversely-correlated) daily 21 MACs.”
That is what is currently unfolding and what should spur, at the very least, a rally into next week (ideally into the month of November ‘19).
The NQ-100 & Transports (and others) have moved in ~7-month intervals since mid-2017. That has resulted in a ~7-month low (July ’17) – low (Feb. ’18) – high (Sept. ’18) – high (April ’19) – high (Nov. ’19) Cycle Progression – targeting next month for a multi-month peak…
Nov. 4 (-8) is also when the inversely-correlated weekly 21 MARCs will begin to surge – an advance that will last about 7 weeks. In the early going, when current price levels are well above those replacement calculator levels, the 21 MARCs act as support.
Conversely, it is when current price action stalls – or begins to decline – and those replacement levels surge to meet (and ultimately exceed) current price action, the 21 MARCs become a negative influence. Depending on price movement in the first half of Nov. ’19, that negative influence could arrive as early as mid-Nov. (or wait until the first half of Dec. ’19).
That is why price action will play such a key role in honing exactly when a multi-month peak is most likely… and when an ensuing decline should take hold. It is possible these cycles could also be revealing exactly when crucial fundamental events are most likely (China trade deal? Intensifying Middle East turmoil?? Deterioration in Republican support for President Trump???… or something out of left field)…
A peak at that time would fulfill the following cycles:
11 – 12-week low-low-low-low-(high) Cycle Progression.
22 – 23-week low-low-(high) Cycle Progression.
45 – 46-week low-low-low-(high) Cycle Progression.
29 weeks high (Oct. 1-5, ’18) – high (Apr. 22-26, ’19) – (high) Cycle Progression.
36 weeks high-high (Jan. – Oct. ’18) / 58 weeks high – high (Oct. ’18 – Nov. ’19) – a 1.618/1 relationship.
~60-degree high-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression.
~90-degree rally (from diverse Aug. ’19 lows).
For now, the daily trends are up until daily closes below 26,740/DJIA, 2981/ESZ & 7835/NQZ.”
Stock indexes remain on track for overall advance into Nov. 11 – 15 – the ideal time for the next multi-month peak. Primary indices project new highs for 2019, with DJIA focused on intermediate upside target near 27,700 (watch S+P near 3100/ESZ & Nasdaq 100 near 8300/NQZ). What Could Trigger late-Oct./early-Nov. Rally… and mid-Nov. Peak?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.