Tag: 40-Year Cycle of Currency Wars

07/10/24 – “The current week is a classic convergence, or collision, of short-term, intermediate-term, and longer-term cycles in many markets.  The two primary drivers of short-term analysis are the daily trends and intra-month trends. While there remains wide divergence in individual Stock Index action and analysis, the S+P 500 & NQ-100 provide another prime example of the application of these two short-term indicators… (Gold & Silver have […]

07/06/24 – “Stock indexes remain on two divergent paths with the stronger indexes (S+P 500 & NQ-100) rallying into July 2024 and fulfilling a number of cycles and cycle analogs (i.e 17-Year Cycle and intra-year action of 2007).  Similar to 2007, they could see an overall correction into August 2024 with an initial low likely on July 17 – 19th. Bonds & Notes fulfilled a […]

07/05/24 – “The Dollar Index reversed lower after rallying into month-end but failing to turn its weekly trend up (a lagging/confirming indicator) as it fulfilled its weekly LHR indicator.  On an intra-year basis, that fulfills its intra-year uptrend with a rally into mid-year.  As a result, it could spur another drop toward its year-opening range – the high of which is 102.80/DXU. That would fulfill its weekly […]

01/31/24 – “Opening ranges play a key role in analyzing the markets.  That has been evident in many trading systems (like Market Profile, which was heavily used by day traders in the 1980’s & 1990’s) and/or approaches to analyzing and timing market movement & swings. The intra-month & intra-year trends are an example of these.  Another involves a tactic I have used for the past […]

01/31/24 – “On a 1 – 2 year basis, the DJIA remains on track to ultimately reach its multi-year LLH (39,107/DJIA) – potentially in Jan/Feb ’24 – and fulfill a major upside objective created by its 2020 & 2022 lows. That level is reinforced by a multi-year range target at 39,000 – 39,200/DJIA, incorporating the Sept/Oct ’22 lows near 28,700, the Feb ’22 & Oct ’23 ‘midway’ […]

01/27/24 – “Stock Indices remain in positive weekly trends with the Russell 2000 continuing to signal that it should rally back to its December ’23 high… and possibly spike as high as 2140/QRH, where a new intermediate LLH exists. While declining into mid-month and right to its weekly 21 High MAC, the Russell 2000 dropped into a recurring ~12-week cycle & high-low-(low) Cycle Progression during the most likely week […]

01/24/24 – “Inflation continues to be a driving force behind most of the markets, triggering abrupt reversals or violent swings when unexpected data emerges.  One of the key gauges of commodity inflation – described for several years in these publications – is the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (pictured above). With its heavier weighting in energy markets, the GSCI often mimics the movement in Crude Oil… but there is enough […]

01/20/24 – “Bitcoin & Ether are showing signs of topping after Bitcoin reached its 3 – 6 month/~48,000/BT target, setting its highest daily close at 47,985/BTH on Jan. 8.  That fulfilled its multi-month buy signals from mid-Sept & mid-Oct ’23… Bitcoin plunged from there, leaving intact its ~8.5 – 9-month/36 – 38-week high-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression.  Bitcoin tested & held its weekly HLS, portending a 1 – 2 month low […]