17-Year Cycle & 1Q 2025 Sell-Off
12/20/24 – 17-Year Cycle Shift: Initial Stock Market Plunge into December 19th Cycle Low
12/18/24 – “Stock indexes fulfilled 1 – 2 month upside targets and cycles on November 25th – as well as some multi-year cycles – adhering to the scenario described in early-October. The DJTA, Russell 2K & S+P Midcap all peaked right at their multi-month upside range (3400/IDX, 17,600/DJTA & 2460/QR) during the Nov 22/25th target cycle.
They generated multiple negative/sell signals in late-Nov/early-Dec and have consistently reinforced those signals in recent weeks.
The DJIA topped while fulfilling a ~4-week (25 – 28 day) low-low-low-(high) and a ~16-week low-low-(high) Cycle Progression and was projected to see an initial drop into Dec 16 – 19th… fulfilling the outlook for a multi-week drop to 41,600 – 41,800/DJIA.
Even 2024’s ‘tech darling’ – NVDA – peaked on Nov 7th (highest daily close) and created an intraday spike high on Nov 21st… and has since declined. Based on its daily 21 AND 40 MACs, that stock turned negative and entered its most vulnerable period (from a technical perspective) this week.
Since precisely fulfilling multi-month cycle highs on November 25th, the S+P Midcap 400 has declined on 12 out of the 16 days since then and already plunged to its first downside range-trading target (~3125/IDX).
The DJTA has declined for 14 of those 16 days, dropping over 10% from its Nov 25th peak.
While the DJIA extended its decline to 10 days straight for the first time since 1974, the S+P advance/decline line has dropped for 12 days in a row.
Are these outliers?
Or a warning of underlying weakness in the overall market?
Even as the NQ-100 set new highs – on the backs of a handful of overheating stocks – the rest of the market has validated what was described in early-October (projecting a multi-pronged advance into November 22/25th followed by sharp declines).
Meanwhile, the DJIA is doing exactly what was forecast on December 7th when it was projected to see a sharp, multi-week drop into December 19th with a primary downside target at 41,600 – 41,800…
All of this was/is forecast to ‘cast shadows ahead’ to two key time frames in 1Q 2025… the first in January 2025.
A blow-off spike low in stock indexes – on December 19th (+ or – 1 trading day) would POWERFULLY fulfill this ongoing analysis AND further validate what is expected for early-2025. Corresponding action in Gold & Silver, Bitcoin, Bonds, Energy Markets & the Dollar Index are corroborating this outlook.
At least one big surprise is appearing more and more likely for early-2025!
Specific analysis, targets, cycles & projections will continue to be published in related Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK
Stock Indexes are reinforcing the uncanny precision of the 17-Year Cycle – forecast to time a MAJOR stock market peak in 4Q 2024 and an initial 20+% plunge into March/April ‘25. That top is VERY likely intact… at least in the S+P Midcap 400, Russell 2000 & DJTA Indexes. The proverbial ‘dominos’ should begin to fall in 1Q 2025 – ultimately leading into a culminating sell-off in March/April ‘25.
The initial sell-off is ‘casting shadows ahead’ to January ’25 and ultimately to March/April ’25 – when the sharpest decline is most likely.
Did November 22/25th Time a MAJOR Peak in Leading Equity Indexes?
Why is 1Q 2025 a Vulnerable Time for Stocks?
How Would Drop into March/April ’25 Set Stage for 2025/2026?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.